Conventional Pick Value Rankings

In comparison to the Massey-Thaler values discussed in the previous post, NFL teams generally use a much simpler method to value draft picks. Every pick in the draft is awarded a point value relative to the 1st overall pick, which is given an arbitrary value of 3000 points. I'll refer to these as "conventional" draft values. Some teams' draft charts might vary slightly but not significantly, as shown by the M-T study. They plotted every pick for pick trade and they universally conformed to the chart cited 2 posts ago. While the chart may not reflect the true relative worth of each pick, it does reflect how the NFL teams value them.

Using the same database of draft picks from 1999 through 2006, we can tally the total "conventional" points associated with each team. Teams with high point totals are teams which had higher value picks, more picks, or both than most other teams. Here is the list:


The usual suspects top the chart. Arizona, Cincinnati, and Detroit have had the highest convential-value picks over the past 8 drafts. Cleveland could forgiven because it was an expansion team beginning in '99. Houston might have the highest per year value, but it didn't come into existence until '02.

At the bottom of the list I'd expect New England, Tennessee, Philadelphia, or St. Louis--teams that have been somewhat dominant over the past 8 yrs. But instead we find Tampa Bay and Miami--solid teams, but not quite as dominant. Just as in the M-T value rankings, we see that trades can significantly alter the values associated with each team. In the next post, we'll compare each team's M-T values and conventional values to see if any of them might be deliberately maneuvering to maximize M-T value.