Below are the predicted wins for each NFL team based on a projection of last year's efficiency stats and this year's schedule.
AFC
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North
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BAL 11
PIT 10
CIN 9
CLE 4
South
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IND 11
JAX 10
TEN 6
HOU 5
East
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NE 9
MIA 9
NYJ 8
BUF 6
West
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SD 12
KC 9
DEN 8
OAK 4
NFC
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North
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CHI 12
GB 8
MIN 7
DET 5
South
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NO 11
CAR 9
ATL 7
TB 5
East
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PHI 12
DAL 9
NYG 8
WAS 5
West
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STL 10
ARI 7
SF 7
SEA 7
With these predictions, it looks like the playoff teams in the AFC woud be SD, BAL, PIT, IND, NE, and JAX. From the NFC, the playoff teams would be CHI, NO, PHI, STL, DAL, and CAR.
Note 1: I'm not actually predicting those exact win totals. The model is saying that each team's win probility distribution is centered at the specified win total. I realize that sounds rather weasel-like, but that's the nature of the sport. The standard deviation is just over +/-1 game and the 90% confidence interval is very close to +/-2 games. In other words, I'm about 65% sure STL will win between 9-11 games, and 90% sure that STL will win between 8 and 12 games.Note 2: I've actually predicted 260 wins when there are really only 256 games. This is due to rounding.
Note 3: Historically, teams that have significant differences between their actual and expected win totals are teams that have had quarterback changes, due to either injuries or acquisitions. Look for teams such as MIA, KC, TB, and MIN to deviate from their projected wins.
Note 4: A couple teams have demonstrated a trend of winning consistently more or consistently fewer games than their efficiency stats would predict. NE, in particular, has won 2 more games than projected each of the past 5 years. In contrast is DET, which has consistently lost more games than their stats would predict. Perhaps this is evidence of good or bad coaching, especially in-game play calling and clock management. But maybe it's just evidence of lucky kicking.
