Week 8 Efficiency Rankings

NFL team efficiency rankings are listed below in terms of generic winning probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule. GWP modifies the generic win probability to reflect the strength of past opponents. OGWP is each team's offensive GWP, i.e. it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DGWP is vice-versa. Rankings are based on a logistic regression model applied to data through week 8. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here.

Rank	Team	Last Wk	GWP	Opp GWP	OGWP	DGWP
1	NE	2	0.91	0.46	0.81	0.70
2	IND	1	0.90	0.50	0.76	0.72
3	DAL	4	0.77	0.41	0.69	0.61
4	TB	3	0.76	0.49	0.67	0.60
5	PIT	5	0.71	0.42	0.60	0.61
6	SEA	9	0.65	0.42	0.56	0.55
7	JAX	8	0.61	0.55	0.60	0.54
8	SD	13	0.60	0.45	0.60	0.54
9	TEN	11	0.58	0.51	0.40	0.69
10	PHI	12	0.57	0.39	0.66	0.46
11	NYG	7	0.56	0.41	0.50	0.59
12	WAS	10	0.52	0.51	0.40	0.68
13	DEN	6	0.51	0.57	0.65	0.38
14	GB	15	0.50	0.47	0.54	0.50
15	CIN	14	0.48	0.52	0.64	0.44
16	BAL	24	0.40	0.31	0.38	0.55
17	HOU	18	0.39	0.50	0.46	0.40
18	KC	17	0.39	0.42	0.37	0.57
19	BUF	20	0.38	0.54	0.41	0.55
20	CLE	16	0.37	0.46	0.58	0.37
21	ARI	19	0.37	0.42	0.43	0.49
22	DET	22	0.36	0.41	0.40	0.50
23	MIN	21	0.36	0.44	0.46	0.45
24	CAR	23	0.34	0.46	0.46	0.42
25	NO	28	0.32	0.52	0.48	0.33
26	ATL	26	0.29	0.45	0.45	0.38
27	OAK	25	0.28	0.44	0.29	0.55
28	MIA	29	0.28	0.51	0.49	0.30
29	NYJ	27	0.24	0.49	0.43	0.31
30	CHI	30	0.19	0.49	0.30	0.40
31	STL	32	0.18	0.48	0.31	0.39
32	SF	31	0.14	0.46	0.22	0.42

This week the method of adjusting for opponent strength was improved. Instead of a single iteration of adjustment, the calculations now include as many iterations as required for full convergence. For example, a team that has usually dominated its opponents would have an apparently weaker opponent strength than is the case. Multiple iterations of opponent-strength adjustments corrects for this effect. CLE and BAL appear to be the only teams to be significantly affected.