Game Predictions Week 11

Game probabilities for week 11 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength. Games in which the model disagrees with consensus favorites are highlighted in red.

Vprob	Visitor	Home	Hprob
0.35	ARI	CIN	0.65
0.20	CAR	GB	0.80
0.45	CLE	BAL	0.55
0.04	KC	IND	0.96
0.18	MIA	PHI	0.82
0.89	NE	BUF	0.11
0.35	NO	HOU	0.65
0.16	OAK	MIN	0.84
0.86	PIT	NYJ	0.14
0.35	SD	JAX	0.65
0.78	TB	ATL	0.22
0.11	WAS	DAL	0.89
0.67	NYG	DET	0.33
0.51	STL	SF	0.49
0.10	CHI	SEA	0.90
0.50	TEN	DEN	0.50

It seems as if the consensus favorites and the mathematical models have converged. Only one game difference between them the past two weeks. I would not be confident in the Baltimore prediction without knowing the injury status of their secondary. Without a healthy McAlister, Rolle, and Reed, I don't see how they could be the favorite.