Game Predictions Week 12

Game probabilities for week 11 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength. Games in which the model disagrees with consensus favorites are highlighted in red.

Vprob	Visitor	Home	Hprob
0.70	GB	DET	0.30
0.06	NYJ	DAL	0.94
0.86	IND	ATL	0.14
0.27	BUF	JAX	0.73
0.71	DEN	CHI	0.29
0.42	HOU	CLE	0.58
0.31	MIN	NYG	0.69
0.37	NO	CAR	0.63
0.21	OAK	KC	0.79
0.78	SEA	STL	0.22
0.48	TEN	CIN	0.52
0.19	WAS	TB	0.81
0.18	SF	ARI	0.82
0.25	BAL	SD	0.75
0.09	PHI	NE	0.91
0.14	MIA	PIT	0.86

I wouldn't put too much stock in the NO-CAR probability. The QB/WR injury situation in CAR needs to be watched, and NO has been so inconsistent.