Luckiest NFL Teams After Week 11

Based on opponent-adjusted generic win probability (GWP), the number of expected wins can be estimated for each team. Teams that have won more games than expected can be considered lucky, while teams with fewer wins than expected can be considered unlucky.

The list of NFL teams sorted from luckiest (positive numbers) to unluckiest is posted below. We would expect most teams to be within +/- 1.0 wins. So teams outside that margin can be deemed significantly lucky or unlucky.

Team	GWP	Actual Wins	Expected	Luck
GB	0.64	9	6.4	2.6
DET	0.35	6	3.5	2.5
CHI	0.24	4	2.4	1.6
CLE	0.48	6	4.8	1.2
TEN	0.50	6	5.0	1.0
NYG	0.61	7	6.1	0.9
NE	0.91	10	9.1	0.9
JAX	0.61	7	6.1	0.9
NO	0.33	4	3.3	0.7
DAL	0.85	9	8.5	0.5
BUF	0.45	5	4.5	0.5
ARI	0.45	5	4.5	0.5
CAR	0.37	4	3.7	0.3
BAL	0.38	4	3.8	0.2
HOU	0.48	5	4.8	0.2
SF	0.20	2	2.0	0.0
OAK	0.20	2	2.0	0.0
KC	0.41	4	4.1	-0.1
DEN	0.52	5	5.2	-0.2
PIT	0.74	7	7.4	-0.4
SS	0.65	6	6.5	-0.5
IND	0.85	8	8.5	-0.5
PHI	0.56	5	5.6	-0.6
WAS	0.56	5	5.6	-0.6
SD	0.57	5	5.7	-0.7
STL	0.27	2	2.7	-0.7
ATL	0.38	3	3.8	-0.8
MIN	0.49	4	4.9	-0.9
CIN	0.43	3	4.3	-1.3
NYJ	0.35	2	3.5	-1.5
TB	0.80	6	8.0	-2.0
MIA	0.38	0	3.8	-3.8

Poor Miami. They've played well enough to win about 4 games, but are still waiting for their first victory.