Luckiest NFL Teams After Week 11

Based on opponent-adjusted generic win probability (GWP), the number of expected wins can be estimated for each team. Teams that have won more games than expected can be considered lucky, while teams with fewer wins than expected can be considered unlucky.

The list of NFL teams sorted from luckiest (positive numbers) to unluckiest is posted below. We would expect most teams to be within +/- 1.0 wins. So teams outside that margin can be deemed significantly lucky or unlucky.





































TeamGWPActual WinsExpectedLuck
GB0.6496.42.6
DET0.3563.52.5
CHI0.2442.41.6
CLE0.4864.81.2
TEN0.5065.01.0
NYG0.6176.10.9
NE0.91109.10.9
JAX0.6176.10.9
NO0.3343.30.7
DAL0.8598.50.5
BUF0.4554.50.5
ARI0.4554.50.5
CAR0.3743.70.3
BAL0.3843.80.2
HOU0.4854.80.2
SF0.2022.00.0
OAK0.2022.00.0
KC0.4144.1-0.1
DEN0.5255.2-0.2
PIT0.7477.4-0.4
SS0.6566.5-0.5
IND0.8588.5-0.5
PHI0.5655.6-0.6
WAS0.5655.6-0.6
SD0.5755.7-0.7
STL0.2722.7-0.7
ATL0.3833.8-0.8
MIN0.4944.9-0.9
CIN0.4334.3-1.3
NYJ0.3523.5-1.5
TB0.8068.0-2.0
MIA0.3803.8-3.8


Poor Miami. They've played well enough to win about 4 games, but are still waiting for their first victory.

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2 Responses to “Luckiest NFL Teams After Week 11”

  1. Tarr says:

    Wow, yeah, they've been terribly unlucky. I still think the hardest-luck team (purely in the sense of game outcomes, as oppose to injuries) is the Vikings, though. Not only have they been fairly unluckly, but their division opponents are 1-2-3 in luck.

  2. Brian Burke says:

    Good point!

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