Week 10 Efficiency Rankings

NFL team efficiency rankings are listed below in terms of generic winning probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule. GWP modifies the generic win probability to reflect the strength of past opponents. Offensive ranking (O Rank) is based on each team's offensive GWP, i.e. it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. D Rank is vice-versa. Rankings are based on a logistic regression model applied to data through week 10. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here.





































RANKTEAMLast WkGWPOpp GWPO RankD Rank
1NE20.910.5313
2IND10.890.5641
3DAL30.860.5024
4PIT50.790.4375
5TB40.780.5038
6SEA60.660.421216
7GB120.630.48914
8NYG70.620.52166
9JAX90.600.54621
10PHI100.600.51522
11TEN80.560.52272
12WAS110.530.53227
13SD190.530.51189
14MIN150.480.511317
15DEN240.480.531025
16CIN140.480.52826
17BUF130.470.542011
18HOU160.450.471528
19ATL250.430.451919
20CLE170.430.531127
21ARI220.410.482415
22BAL210.390.422910
23NO180.380.521432
24CAR200.370.512318
25DET230.370.442512
26KC260.330.452813
27MIA280.320.531730
28NYJ270.300.532131
29STL300.230.492629
30CHI310.220.493024
31OAK290.200.413123
32SF320.170.513220

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2 Responses to “Week 10 Efficiency Rankings”

  1. coldbikemessenger says:

    I am very surprised to seeSeattle so high.
    Think they are for real?

  2. Brian Burke says:

    Seattle has a solid passing game, they don't turn the ball over, and their defense is above-average in every category. They also don't commit a lot of penalties. But they're hard to read because their schedule has been relatively soft. It will continue to be one of the softest in the league too. I see them walking away with the NFC W with 10 or 11 wins and hosting a first-round playoff game.

    The efficiency rankings has them neck and neck with GB and NYG for 3rd/4th/5th best teams in the NFC. That feels about right. But from here out it's all about schedule and home field.

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