Week 6 Game Probabilities

Win probabilities for week 5 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here with some modifications. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength.























PWINGamePWIN
0.57 CHI at ATL0.43
0.37 BAL at IND0.63
0.07 DET at MIN0.93
0.35 OAK at NO0.65
0.14 CIN at NYJ0.86
0.66 CAR at TB0.34
0.04 STL at WAS0.96
0.76 MIA at HOU0.24
0.24 JAX at DEN0.76
0.43 DAL at ARI0.57
0.76 PHI at SF0.24
0.50 GB at SEA0.50
0.13 NE at SD0.87
0.95 NYG at CLE0.05

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16 Responses to “Week 6 Game Probabilities”

  1. Brian Burke says:

    If anyone really needs a tie-breaker for the GB-SEA game, GB has the edge by .003. But my predictions are only guaranteed to 2 decimal places!

  2. Dave Peer says:

    No love for MNF?

  3. Sexy Rexy says:

    Wow...Arizona favored over Dallas and San Diego favored huge over New England. I guess it is these type of counterintuitive picks that is the whole reason I look at this site.

    Outstanding work by the way. I really feel like you set the standard for statistically analyzing the NFL.

  4. Brian Burke says:

    You have to be a premium member to get MNF. Just kidding. I left it out. It's .95 to .05--pretty lopsided. I'll add it to the table.

  5. Dave Peer says:

    "You have to be a premium member to get MNF. Just kidding. I left it out. It's .95 to .05--pretty lopsided. I'll add it to the table."

    You're a good man, but I'd pay. Thanks!

  6. Tim says:

    I'm not sure where the best place to post this is, but I was looking at your how to beat Vegas section and noticed that you said that 80% of teams that win beat the spread, however, whenever an underdog wins they obviously beat the spread, which would skew this result to the high end. My question is what % of teams that are favorites beat the spread? Also, have you measured how accurate your win probabilities are? I wonder because the money line on the carolina/kc game last week was 1:5, but you had carolina as more than an 80% favorite, which would make that bet a profitable one if that greater than 80% is accurate.

  7. Brian Burke says:

    Hi Tim. Over the past 2 season I did track the accuracy weekly. This year I'm working on other stuff, so I'm not going to do that. (In fact, I had to be convinced to continue to do the predictions at all!)

    But I can tell you that over the past 2 seasons, this system was the most accurate of any I found. But it's "natural" expected accuracy is only slightly better than what Vegas predicts.

    I do have caveats however, but they're valid. I only count weeks 4-16. I need at least 3 weeks for data, and week 17 is notoriously random due to playoff teams resting starters.

  8. Greg says:

    Brian this is an awesome site and has made me a ton of money so let me know if my wallet can do some convincing for you in the future if need be. Let Tim go back and analyze last year how your predictions (that you even post on this site for convenience) did against Vegas and develop his own system to bet on them as I have. Keep up the great work!

  9. Greg says:

    BTW, I really consider every Thursday during football season as Christmas

  10. Brian Burke says:

    Very flattering! But I do want to warn everyone again: There will be bad weeks. There will be a 90/10 or 95/05 game where there's an upset.

    It's not that the system is "due" for a bad week, but it's very unlikely to go several weeks without a few games going the wrong way. Note also, that a 55/45 probability is not the same thing as a prediction. It just means if the 2 teams could theoretically play 100 times, one would win about 55 and one would win about 45. It's anyone's guess which one of the 100 games we'll see come kick off.

    But I do appreciate all the support!

  11. TK says:

    Greg, just wondering if you could shed some light as to what you look for when breaking this information down to use ATS. Thanks.

    Thanks Brian!

  12. Greg says:

    Just look at the information that Brian has from last year week by week and you'll notice some trends based on the winning probabilities and Vegas lines. You just have to have the stones to take the teams Brian's system likes and not waste your time with moneylines of 10 pt favorites and such.

  13. TK says:

    thanks greg, are you implying checking out underdogs that Brian favors?

  14. Josh Engleman says:

    TK,

    If you click the link attached to my name, I have spread predictions at my site. Most of my work is rooted in stuff that I first saw here. But if you are looking for spread picks, I've got them. 10-4 last week ATS, if I remember correctly.

  15. Thomas says:

    I've run the past couple weeks against the posted moneylines and so far one would do pretty well using betting Kelly on the side with the edge based on these win %s.

    Insert standard small sample size disclaimer here.

  16. Dave Peer says:

    I'm not gambling. I just meant that your content is great.

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