Super Bowl XLIII Prediction

Win probabilities for Super Bowl XLIII are listed below. More info after the jump.

Pwin	Super Bowl XLIII	Pwin
0.69	PIT at ARI	0.31

The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here with some modifications. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength.

The probabilities based on full regular season statistics would be 0.74 to 0.26 in favor of Pittsburgh. The efficiency stats of each opponent is listed in the table below.

I was going to do a write up of each facet of the match-up, but I think the table says a thousand words. The one thing I will point out however, is Pittsburgh's pass defense. It gives up only 4.3 yards per drop back, and almost 4% of all passes are intercepted. Since the 2002 season, the next best pass defense was the '02 Buccaneers who gave up 4.5 yds per attempt. Baltimore's '03 defense was third giving up 4.8 yds per attempt. That's three standard deviations better than the mean. In comparison, Arizona's passing offense is 1.4 standard deviations better than the mean. And that's why the Steelers are a strong favorite.

TEAM	OPASS	ORUN	OINT %	OFUM %	DPASS	DRUN	DINT %	PENRATE
ARI	7.1	3.5	2.4	2.8	6.5	4.0	2.5	0.39
PIT	5.9	3.7	3.0	2.6	4.3	3.3	3.8	0.41
NFL Avg	6.1	4.2	2.8	2.3	6.2	4.2	2.8	0.36