Koko Fantasy Rankings - Running Backs

Next up in Koko the monkey's fantasy rankings are the running backs. In case you aren't familiar with the Koko rankings, they are the simplest projections possible based on previous-year performance. The rankings are intended to serve as the baseline for the bare-minimum accuracy we should expect from all other fantasy projections. A full explanation can be found in the write-up for the QB rankings.

RBs are notoriously difficult to predict. While a starting QB can be expected to have the vast majority of his team's snaps, starting RBs often share snaps with backups. The dreaded RB-by-committee makes it difficult for a simple quantitative system to account for the varying expected number of carries each RB can get.

Still, the regression plots show us we can still project RB per-game production fairly well. I tried the projections two different ways. One way was to estimate production per run--yds per rush and TDs per rush--and then project the number of rushing attempts for each RB. The second method simply projected per game production--yds per game and TDs per game--without regard for the total number of carries. The two methods were equally accurate, so I chose the second, simpler method.

Here are how the per-game stats project for RBs. I looked at rush TDs/G, rush Yds/G, receiving TDs/G, receiving Yds/G, and Fumbles/G.







Next are the rankings. I used the standard fantasy scoring--6 points for TDs, 1 point per 20 yards of rushing or receiving, and -2 points for fumbles. Top RBs tend to play in 14 games in a season, so I used that as the basis for the total season projection. I scratched guys like Warrick Dunn and Edgerrin James off the list, but if I missed anyone let me know. Marshawn Lynch was docked for 2 games worth of points, instead of 3, which is his actual suspension. I did this because he now has 3 fewer games in which he could injured. For rookies like Knowshon Moreno, you can project them as tied for 46th until I have a better systematic way to project rookies.

Rank	Player	RYds/G	RTDs/G	ReYds/G	ReTDs/G	Fum/G	Pts/G	Proj Pts
1	DeAngelo Williams	81.3	0.80	11.3	0.09	0.15	9.7	135.6
2	Michael Turner	87.1	0.77	8.3	0.04	0.20	9.2	129.0
3	Brandon Jacobs	75.7	0.82	8.4	0.04	0.21	8.9	124.6
4	Brian Westbrook	67.2	0.56	24.0	0.19	0.19	8.7	121.5
5	Thomas Jones	74.8	0.65	14.5	0.09	0.19	8.5	119.3
6	Matt Forte	72.5	0.49	24.7	0.14	0.17	8.3	116.6
7	Steven Jackson	77.3	0.53	25.8	0.07	0.27	8.3	115.5
8	LaDainian Tomlinson	68.4	0.59	22.8	0.06	0.17	8.1	113.6
9	Maurice Jones-Drew	59.3	0.62	28.0	0.09	0.26	8.1	113.3
10	Adrian Peterson MIN	89.1	0.56	11.4	0.04	0.31	8.0	111.4
11	Chris Johnson	74.8	0.54	17.1	0.06	0.17	7.9	110.6
12	Steve Slaton	73.9	0.52	20.9	0.06	0.20	7.9	110.0
13	Clinton Portis	80.4	0.52	14.9	0.04	0.20	7.7	108.1
14	Frank Gore	70.8	0.46	22.8	0.10	0.27	7.5	104.4
15	LenDale White	57.7	0.71	7.3	0.04	0.17	7.4	103.5
16	Pierre Thomas	54.3	0.54	18.1	0.12	0.17	7.3	101.7
17	Marion Barber	63.1	0.48	23.5	0.09	0.28	7.2	100.5
18	Reggie Bush	53.7	0.34	33.3	0.20	0.23	7.2	100.4
19	Ronnie Brown	62.3	0.56	16.3	0.04	0.17	7.1	100.0
20	Le'Ron McClain	61.8	0.56	11.3	0.06	0.22	6.9	96.9
21	Kevin Smith	64.2	0.49	17.5	0.04	0.19	6.9	96.4
22	Sammy Morris	61.6	0.51	14.2	0.04	0.17	6.7	94.3
23	Joseph Addai	56.2	0.45	17.1	0.11	0.17	6.7	93.3
24	Willie Parker	69.7	0.47	7.4	0.04	0.15	6.6	92.3
25	Dominic Rhodes	51.4	0.44	18.8	0.12	0.15	6.6	92.3
26	Jonathan Stewart	59.7	0.56	8.4	0.04	0.19	6.6	92.2
27	Willis McGahee	59.4	0.51	14.7	0.04	0.21	6.6	91.9
28	Larry Johnson	70.2	0.45	10.4	0.04	0.27	6.4	89.9
29	Earnest Graham	61.8	0.44	17.2	0.04	0.21	6.4	89.8
30	Marshawn Lynch	68.3	0.51	18.8	0.06	0.19	7.4	89.1
31	Ryan Grant	71.4	0.37	11.1	0.06	0.22	6.3	87.8
32	Tim Hightower	45.8	0.56	15.6	0.04	0.19	6.2	87.5
33	Derrick Ward	65.7	0.31	21.2	0.04	0.19	6.0	84.4
34	Jamal Lewis	65.0	0.37	13.4	0.04	0.19	6.0	83.7
35	Mewelde Moore	51.8	0.40	18.8	0.06	0.17	6.0	83.6
36	Cedric Benson	64.8	0.33	16.0	0.04	0.20	5.8	81.6
37	Darren McFadden	52.7	0.40	19.9	0.04	0.21	5.8	81.2
38	Chester Taylor	45.8	0.37	21.7	0.09	0.19	5.8	80.5
39	Ricky Williams	54.1	0.37	15.0	0.06	0.24	5.6	77.9
40	Fred Jackson	51.3	0.34	18.7	0.04	0.19	5.4	75.2
41	Maurice Morris	55.6	0.24	13.0	0.10	0.17	5.2	72.2
42	Justin Fargas	64.1	0.28	8.9	0.04	0.21	5.1	71.8
43	Julius Jones	56.8	0.31	9.3	0.04	0.22	4.9	69.1
44	Fred Taylor	54.9	0.28	11.2	0.04	0.17	4.9	68.3
45	Ray Rice	50.9	0.24	19.4	0.04	0.17	4.9	67.9