Next up in Koko the monkey's fantasy rankings are the running backs. In case you aren't familiar with the Koko rankings, they are the simplest projections possible based on previous-year performance. The rankings are intended to serve as the baseline for the bare-minimum accuracy we should expect from all other fantasy projections. A full explanation can be found in the write-up for the QB rankings.
RBs are notoriously difficult to predict. While a starting QB can be expected to have the vast majority of his team's snaps, starting RBs often share snaps with backups. The dreaded RB-by-committee makes it difficult for a simple quantitative system to account for the varying expected number of carries each RB can get.
Still, the regression plots show us we can still project RB per-game production fairly well. I tried the projections two different ways. One way was to estimate production per run--yds per rush and TDs per rush--and then project the number of rushing attempts for each RB. The second method simply projected per game production--yds per game and TDs per game--without regard for the total number of carries. The two methods were equally accurate, so I chose the second, simpler method.
Here are how the per-game stats project for RBs. I looked at rush TDs/G, rush Yds/G, receiving TDs/G, receiving Yds/G, and Fumbles/G.
Next are the rankings. I used the standard fantasy scoring--6 points for TDs, 1 point per 20 yards of rushing or receiving, and -2 points for fumbles. Top RBs tend to play in 14 games in a season, so I used that as the basis for the total season projection. I scratched guys like Warrick Dunn and Edgerrin James off the list, but if I missed anyone let me know. Marshawn Lynch was docked for 2 games worth of points, instead of 3, which is his actual suspension. I did this because he now has 3 fewer games in which he could injured. For rookies like Knowshon Moreno, you can project them as tied for 46th until I have a better systematic way to project rookies.
|10||Adrian Peterson MIN||89.1||0.56||11.4||0.04||0.31||8.0||111.4|