Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 17

It looks like the Bengals really are frauds, as Rodney Harrison kindly called them last Sunday night. Well, maybe not frauds, but they are an average team posing as a dominant division winner. Anything can happen in a single elimination tournament like the NFL playoffs, but I wouldn't count on them going very far.

It's no surprise the Jaguars have fallen apart down the stretch. They have been a slightly below-average team for most of the year.

The reigning champion Steelers are still a very good team, but are a long-shot for the playoffs. Had Roethlisberger been able to play in the the first game against Baltimore, which was lost in overtime, the wildcard situation might be very different right now. That was a division and conference game, which would come in very handy in a tie-breaker.

The Jets had a relatively small chance to make the playoffs through most of the season despite their 3-0 start. That all changed in the 3rd quarter against the Colts. On the first series without Manning and their other starters, the Colts gave up a sack, a fumble, a touchdown, the lead, and a perfect record. They also handed the Jets a very strong hand going into the final week. Colts fans are upset at losing the shot at perfection, but maybe the fans who should be most upset are those of the Broncos, Steelers, Jaguars, Texans, and Dolphins.

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

Click on the table headers to sort:



RANK
TEAM
LAST WK
GWP
Opp GWP
O RANK
D RANK
1
IND
1
0.78
0.50
5
6
2
SD
3
0.77
0.48
2
18
3
NO
2
0.77
0.48
1
22
4
PHI
4
0.77
0.52
7
3
5
DAL
5
0.76
0.53
3
12
6
NE
8
0.72
0.52
4
19
7
NYG
6
0.69
0.57
6
13
8
DEN
7
0.67
0.55
17
2
9
GB
11
0.65
0.39
11
7
10
PIT
9
0.64
0.44
9
15
11
NYJ
12
0.61
0.51
24
1
12
BAL
10
0.61
0.50
12
4
13
HOU
13
0.61
0.46
10
20
14
MIN
15
0.57
0.40
8
23
15
TEN
14
0.54
0.55
13
16
16
CIN
17
0.53
0.46
18
5
17
WAS
16
0.52
0.52
19
11
18
CAR
21
0.49
0.55
21
9
19
ARI
19
0.49
0.41
15
17
20
ATL
20
0.46
0.56
16
26
21
JAC
18
0.45
0.50
14
27
22
SF
24
0.40
0.46
22
10
23
MIA
23
0.39
0.57
20
24
24
BUF
22
0.38
0.50
29
8
25
CHI
25
0.34
0.47
23
14
26
TB
26
0.33
0.58
26
21
27
SEA
27
0.25
0.45
25
25
28
KC
28
0.23
0.54
27
29
29
OAK
29
0.19
0.57
30
28
30
STL
30
0.16
0.48
28
30
31
CLE
31
0.15
0.50
32
31
32
DET
32
0.13
0.49
31
32

And here are the sortable raw team efficiency stats. Passing, running, and penalties are in yards per relevant play. Fumbles and interception stats are in turnovers per relevant play.


TEAM
OPASS
ORUN
OINT%
OFUM%
DPASS
DRUN
DINT%
PENRATE
ARI
6.6
4.1
2.7
1.5
5.8
4.6
3.5
0.42
ATL
6.0
4.1
2.8
0.7
7.0
4.1
2.6
0.34
BAL
6.4
4.5
2.6
0.8
5.9
3.5
4.3
0.56
BUF
5.1
4.2
4.6
0.9
5.5
4.8
5.4
0.43
CAR
5.6
4.8
4.5
1.4
5.9
4.5
4.5
0.36
CHI
5.7
3.9
5.1
1.4
5.9
4.3
2.4
0.43
CIN
6.0
4.1
2.6
1.0
5.6
3.8
3.6
0.44
CLE
4.3
4.2
3.9
0.9
7.1
4.5
1.8
0.35
DAL
7.3
4.8
1.6
0.8
6.0
4.0
2.1
0.43
DEN
6.0
4.2
2.0
0.8
5.3
4.1
3.1
0.39
DET
4.9
3.9
5.6
0.8
7.5
4.4
1.8
0.38
GB
6.9
4.4
1.3
0.4
5.6
3.6
5.3
0.55
HOU
7.5
3.3
2.9
1.3
6.0
4.3
2.5
0.42
IND
7.6
3.6
3.0
0.4
5.5
4.2
2.9
0.27
JAC
6.1
4.5
1.9
0.8
7.2
4.0
2.8
0.28
KC
4.9
4.0
2.9
1.8
6.9
4.8
2.6
0.30
MIA
5.4
4.4
3.1
1.2
7.1
4.1
3.0
0.31
MIN
6.9
4.1
1.4
0.9
6.1
3.9
2.0
0.38
NE
7.4
4.1
2.2
0.7
6.1
4.4
3.6
0.36
NO
7.9
4.6
2.1
0.7
6.2
4.5
4.7
0.39
NYG
7.1
4.2
2.5
1.5
6.2
4.2
2.8
0.38
NYJ
5.7
4.5
5.6
1.2
4.8
3.7
3.3
0.35
OAK
4.6
4.2
3.8
1.2
7.1
4.4
1.9
0.48
PHI
7.1
4.3
2.5
0.8
5.4
3.9
4.4
0.47
PIT
7.1
4.1
2.6
1.0
5.8
3.9
1.7
0.39
SD
8.1
3.3
1.9
0.3
5.8
4.5
2.8
0.30
SF
5.3
4.4
2.8
0.7
6.2
3.7
3.3
0.39
SEA
5.4
3.9
3.1
1.4
6.6
4.2
2.2
0.41
STL
4.8
4.4
4.1
1.0
7.3
4.4
1.7
0.42
TB
5.3
4.2
5.5
1.6
6.5
4.8
3.8
0.34
TEN
6.2
5.3
3.1
1.8
6.6
4.2
3.3
0.39
WAS
6.0
3.9
3.3
0.8
5.9
4.0
2.1
0.36
Avg
6.2
4.2
3.1
1.0
6.2
4.2
3.1
0.39

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3 Responses to “Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 17”

  1. James says:

    I think Cincy should "rest their starters" and throw the game against the Jets next week. If the Bengals lose, they have a 99.62% chance of being at home vs Jets in the 1st round. The Pats would get the 3 seed and probably the Ravens, but possibly the Steelers or Broncos.

    I know the stats don't really agree the Jets are a worse team than the Ravens (or Steelers), but for otherwise nearly identical teams, I'd rather take the rookie QB on the road who is throwing nearly twice as many interceptions per pass.

    Going further, if the Pats win their playoff game, the Bengals would even get the Colts instead of the Chargers in the 2nd round, which is almost desirable at this point. What's the downside?

  2. Roger says:

    @James, I agree, but only if NE beats Houston. If Houston wins, then Cincy can go for the 3rd seed and face a weaker opponent (and have better chance of hosting the AFC title game if they get lucky vs Chargers). Baltimore only gets 6th seed if the Jets win, so if Houston wins there's no way Cincy and Baltimore would meet in the first round.

  3. Anonymous says:

    Go Houston!

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