More on advanced stats for golf.
Here is a great application of the Expected Points values I released into the wild last season. This is exactly the kind of stuff I hoped would start happening. It's a look at the Cowboys running game through the lens of EPA. I'd love to see more people take advantage of the EP model.
Here's another article in the same vein. It implores Broncos coach Josh McDaniels to use the EP model to become more aggressive on 4th down.
Sean McCormick at Football Outsiders has a great write-up on the much-hyped Draft class of 2004.
The geometry of free-throw shooting. (Hat tip: M/R)
A strange quirk in how seeding in the NCAA basketball tournament can allow lower seeds to advance more easily. #10 seeds are actually more likely to advance than #9 or #8 seeds. #12 seeds are twice as likely to make the Sweet 16 than #8 seeds.
Turnovers are the key to predicting upsets.
One reason why understanding statistics is important in business and public policy.
An NFL study finds that ACL injuries occur more often on FieldTurf, a brand of artificial grass. Most of these kinds of studies are total junk, but from the article it sounds like solid research. I'd love to see the actual paper. (Hat tip: PFT)
Jason Lisk at PFR is running the Woulda'-Coulda'-Shoulda' Tournament, a playoff among the best teams to fail to win a championship.
More from Jason--his thoughts on completion percentage. Specifically, when does a very high completion percentage not matter. Guys like David Carr and Brian Griese can post extremely high completion percentage without really helping their teams. I ran some numbers, and if you're not getting more than 10 yards per completion, a QB is not going to be a net positive for your team no matter if his completion percentage is 75%.
How much is a statistical analyst worth financially to a professional sports team?
What are Bill Parcell's 4 rules for drafting a QB? (Hat tip: Smart Football) Basically Parcells likes to see sustained performance. Too many one-year-wonders have become quick busts. Every year there's going to be a dazzling passer who puts up great stats behind a dominant line against a run of weak defenses. Parcells' rules essentially rules these guys out.
Some critiques of the Plus/Minus stat in the NBA.
At Fifth Down, Chase Stuart looks at what proportion of each team's player value was obtained in the draft. In other words, which teams are built on the strength of their draft picks? At PFR, Chase also looks at the QBs taken in the 2007 Draft. JaMarcus Russel and Brady Quinn are both huge busts, but how does the pair from 2007 compare to other "bust-classes?" If the Browns had only listened to the Onion back then...or if the Broncos are listening now...
Chase has been busy. He looks at how formerly-elite players have fared after changing teams. And here is a great 2-part look at the best undrafted players.
Mike Florio thinks teams should gladly poach restricted free agent wideouts who are proven performers. His point is that there are lots of top round busts at WR, so the best thing to do is grab a proven guy off another roster. But it's not so simple. WR is no different than other positions in that the best WRs really do come the top rounds of the draft. Plus, Florio is only looking at the benefit side of the equation. The costs are much higher for a poaching team. The costs to the team trying to pry away the restricted free agent include both the salary and draft picks, while the team with restricted rights to the player only needs to match the salary offer.
Do you hate your favorite team's rival as much as I hate my favorite team's? Have you wondered why you fixate on a single opponent like that? This might be the reason.
I need a new term for hat tip. Tango has "glove slap." What about "helmet knock?"
More on advanced stats for golf.