## Game Probabilities - Week 4

Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I also lead-in with a discussion of the kinds of things I'm looking at this time of the year.

### 17 Responses to “Game Probabilities - Week 4”

1. The Wizard says:

Brian, have you thought about a weighted average of last season stats and this season since the season is still young?

2. James says:

I've been waiting for these all season!

3. Sam says:

Brian, you did a great job on Sirius XM NFL radio yesterday. Peter King is totally smitten...

4. Brian Burke says:

Thanks, Sam. Doing radio is fun. I've finally lost my nervous "shaky voice."

Wizard-I have tested using a weighted average with last season, and there are just as many teams that drastically change in strength from yr-to-yr as there are teams that stay in last year's form. Bottom line is that it's somewhere between slightly negative information and a wash.

There are always exceptions--There are always a handful of teams you can count on to stay good or stay bad from yr-to-yr.

5. Bobby says:

Brian, has your HFA variable changed at all this year?

6. Anonymous says:

Brian, can you give any stats on how your model did and how it compared to Vegas straight up and against the spread?

7. Chuck Winkler says:

Do you know why the Giants are favored over Chicago? Week to Week momentum in the NFL is huge. When a team wins at home as an underdog, or against a division rival in a close game (The Bears accomplished both), this team loses vs the spread 62% of the time the following week when playing on the road. That statistic covers all games from 1993-2010. Vegas has finally caught on, and they are adjusting accordingly.

8. Anonymous says:

Last year some guy used your model to give betting advices : I can't remember his website, which was not all that great looking but incredibly interesting. Any chance you might remind me/us which it was ?

9. Anonymous says:

It looks like you didn't include opponent adjustments. Was that intentional?

10. James says:

Quote directly from the article "The model also adjusts for each team’s previous opponent strength and factors in home-field advantage."

11. Anonymous says:

"Do you know why the Giants are favored over Chicago? Week to Week momentum in the NFL is huge. When a team wins at home as an underdog, or against a division rival in a close game (The Bears accomplished both), this team loses vs the spread 62% of the time the following week when playing on the road."

I love these posts because they also bring out the moronic gamblers who can't be bothered with all the interesting analysis that you do.

12. Anonymous says:

Ok then how does Atlanta have a 64% chance of beating sf when its gwp is .08 lower? Home field advantage can't be that big

13. James says:

Anon makes a good point. HFA is a factor, but not all of it. I'd guess it's because while both teams have a poor DPASS, Atlanta's OPASS is significantly greater than San Fransisco's. I'd also think that the INT% heavily in Atlanta's favor contributes as well (SF throws lots of ints and Atlanta's caught a lot this season).

14. Anonymous says:

Anonymous, I believe the website was http://www.bestofblog.net/

Which is now dead....wondering if it exists under something else, but haven't been able to find anything.

15. Billy Evans says:

Hey Brian, do you have stats on your picks? I'm wondering if 55% winners win close to 55% and if 80% winners win 80% etc....

If you have them, are they posted on the web somewhere?

16. Brian Burke says:

Someone just sent them to me. I can post them sometime soon.

17. Anonymous says:

Did you ever get a chance to post them?