Roundup 2/5/2011

Please welcome Outside the Hashes to the advanced stats community.

The Rams Herd uses advanced stats to compare STL's MVP candidates.

Does defense really win championships? A couple more stabs at the question.

How much does NFL playoff seeding matter? Obviously the 1 and 2 seeds have a very substantial advantage simply due to the bye. Home field is a big plus too. Beyond that I doubt the seeding matters in terms of strength of draw for a lot of reasons. The post at the link appears to confirm that.

Bradford and Suh won rookie of the year honors. But between the two, Suh has clearly made the bigger first-year impact. Bradford still has a lot of potential, but he was 33rd in total EPA for all QBs. Suh ranked 2nd in +EPA for all defensive tackles. He was 7th in TF. He led the league for all DTs with 10 sacks and 17 QB hits.

How the Packers can win. How the Steelers can win. Good stuff from Mike Tanier.

Dick LeBeau and Dom Capers, the two defensive coordinators in the Super Bowl, both made important contributions to the zone blitz defense.

Enjoy the day, Steelers and Packers fans, because it has become less likely over time that teams will be back in the thick of things the following season.

Which QBs had the biggest uphill climbs in their post-season games?

Are the Packers really better playing on turf? I'm not so sure. Small sample, plus bias from strength of opponent makes it impossible to say.

The law of diminishing returns and NFL passing.

Don't play Super Bowl Squares against an economist or math professor. Check out PFR's Super Bowl Squares App and dominate your party.

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2 Responses to “Roundup 2/5/2011”

  1. Jeff says:

    Pointed it out at the Rams Herd site, but thought I'd mention it here as well. You can't really compare the always-positive WPAs of defensive players with the rarely-nearly-as-strongly-positive WPAs of offensive players. At least, not until the partial fix mentioned here: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/01/defensive-gamblers.html is implemented. :-)

  2. Bigmouth says:

    I've said the same thing about Bradford: lots of potential, but not a lot of impact this year. I'm curious, though, is there a way we can quantify potential? Is it as simple as looking at the Lewin career forecast for QBs? And is there an equivalent of the forecast for other positions?

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