Ok, not 4th down decisions exactly, but he hits the nail on the head here (via David Brooks):
People who have information about an individual case rarely feel the need to know the statistics of the class to which the case belongs.
Coaches want to know all about the particulars of certain situations: how fatigued the defense is, how the left guard has been playing today, how well the team has done in short yardage so far (sample size of 3 plays probably), how good the turf's traction is, and so on. But many coaches remain generally (and willfully) ignorant of the statistics of their larger situation.
Sure, all those little things matter, but not nearly as much as the 'class to which the case belongs', as Kahneman puts it.
Case in point.