Playoff Probabilities: Week 12

Welcome to this week's edition of playoff probabilities, wherein I survey the playoff field in preparation for the annual binge of turkey, football, and beer that is Thanksgiving in America. As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to simulate the NFL season 5,000 times. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

Things have really come into focus in the NFC. The Packers, 49ers, and Saints all have comfortable leads in their respective division races, and the wild card is mostly down to the Bears, Lions, Falcons, and whichever team winds up in second place in the NFC East.

Speaking of which, this was not a very good week for the New York Giants. Two weeks ago, they had a two-game cushion atop the East, but the combination of their loss to the Eagles last week and the Cowboys' win over the Redskins dropped the Giants' overall playoff probability down to 32%. Things this week will not be getting any easier, as the Giants travel to New Orleans to face a Saints team that is undefeated at home, followed by a game the week after against the Packers. Yikes.

In the AFC, Cincinnati's loss in last week's high-leverage game was not as costly as the model anticipated, since it was partially offset by losses by both the Jets and the Bills. Most of the Bengals' playoff hopes rest in claiming a wild card spot at this point, with the race for the North having been largely reduced to a two-team battle between the Ravens and Steelers, which the Steelers are roughly 2:1 favorites to win. This might seem surprising—both teams have fairly easy remaining schedules and Baltimore has the clear edge in tiebreakers, having beaten the Steelers twice. For the answer, look no further than the latest team efficiency ratings—our model simply considers the Steelers to be, on average, the superior team, with a GWP of .73 to Baltimore's .56.

High-Leverage Game of the Week

Denver at San Diego | Sunday, November 27 | 4:15 pm

Playoff Prob. SD WinDEN Win
DEN 941
SD 203

This game has a lot of upside potential for Team Tebow. As things currently stand, the Broncos are given only a 13% chance to overtake the Raiders and claim the AFC West title. But coupled with an Oakland loss, a win here could put Denver at an even 50% to earn a playoff berth. Denver and Oakland have split their season series, but a win gives the Broncos a 3-2 division record (with their final division matchup being a very winnable home game against the Chiefs).

A lot of the volatility in the teams' playoff probabilities stems from the fact that the team efficiency model just doesn't consider the teams in the West to be all that good. As a result, the model expects nine wins to be enough to take the division, and, given that low bar, a few surprise wins could really shake things up. Thus, if the Broncos win here and then finish out the season just 3-2, they make the postseason in 80% of simulations.

As for San Diego, they have dug a rather deep hole for themselves. A win should be enough to give them a meaningful chance at the division title (16%), but a loss would drop their overall playoff chances down to just 1 in 50.

The probabilities below are the result of simulating the season 50,000 times using the game-win probabilities from the team efficiency model. They may not add up to 100 (in percent form) due to rounding. Enjoy, and Happy Thanksgiving.

AFC EAST
TeamRecWins1st2nd3rd4th
NE7-311.394510
NYJ5-58.2158365
BUF5-57.9435529
MIA3-75.2021186
AFC NORTH
TeamRecWins1st2nd3rd4th
PIT7-311.7633330
BAL7-310.7355691
CIN6-48.8210807
CLE4-65.901792
AFC SOUTH
TeamRecWins1st2nd3rd4th
HOU7-312.2>99000
TEN5-58.0086140
JAC3-75.7014850
IND0-101.2000>99
AFC WEST
TeamRecWins1st2nd3rd4th
OAK6-49.1751961
DEN5-57.31339418
SD4-67.01241416
KC4-65.2021286
NFC EAST
TeamRecWins1st2nd3rd4th
DAL6-410.0692190
NYG6-49.12448263
PHI4-67.7729577
WAS3-75.502891
NFC NORTH
TeamRecWins1st2nd3rd4th
GB10-014.095410
CHI7-310.6252470
DET7-310.2345520
MIN2-84.0000>99
NFC SOUTH
TeamRecWins1st2nd3rd4th
NO7-311.292800
ATL6-49.288660
TB4-66.0067025
CAR2-84.5002475
NFC WEST
TeamRecWins1st2nd3rd4th
SF9-112.6>99000
SEA4-66.6076213
ARI3-75.40206019
STL2-84.1041977


AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6thTotal
HOU542914200>99
PIT163511132399
NE17215151398
BAL121291491093
OAK027660479
CIN011093041
BUF003121017
DEN001111518
SD000120315
NYJ001122023
TEN000031114
CLE0000011
KC000000<1
MIA000000<1
JAC000000<1
IND0000000

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6thTotal
GB74211041>99
SF246012400>99
NO01049331294
DAL0626361474
DET1210373070
CHI0100493586
NYG018162632
ATL004461933
PHI0007019
SEA0000011
TB000000<1
WAS000000<1
ARI000000<1
MIN000000<1
CAR000000<1
STL000000<1


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1 Responses to “Playoff Probabilities: Week 12”

  1. Anonymous says:

    For this type of information I like the site www.PlayoffStatus.com Been following this site for years.

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