Earlier this year, the Falcons were criticized for going for it on 4th down and failing to convert against the Saints in OT. Mike Smith was crucified for his "incorrect" decision. But, as Brian wrote, his decision was correct. A decision cannot be evaluated based on the outcome, but rather the theoretical expectation of the choice itself. This week against the Giants, Mike Smith was faced with several 4th-down decision throughout the course of the game. The first came at the end of a 14-play, 66-yard drive at the start of the 2nd quarter. Using our Markov model, we can look at how the drive developed:
Keith Goldner is the creator of Drive-By Football, and Chief Analyst at numberFire.com - The leading fantasy sports analytics platform. Follow him on twitter @drivebyfootball or check out numberFire on Facebook.