Playoff Projections - Week 13

As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to create a Monte Carlo season simulation. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

AFC EAST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
NE95500
MIA5413222
NYJ0304030
BUF0242848
AFC NORTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
BAL92710
CIN447481
PIT446473
CLE00495
AFC SOUTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
HOU98200
IND29270
TEN068211
JAC001189
AFC WEST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
DEN100000
SD065350
OAK035632
KC00298
NFC EAST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
NYG722260
WAS1946314
DAL931546
PHI01990
NFC NORTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
CHI474381
GB4737142
MIN6186016
DET011782
NFC SOUTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
ATL99100
TB184132
CAR045541
NO0113157
NFC WEST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
SF96400
SEA484102
STL0107021
ARI022077


AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding/td>
Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6thTotal
HOU82114120100
DEN750261600100
NE71525482298
BAL324412462100
IND0111462674
PIT0013172345
CIN0013212549
MIA00052714
NYJ0000246
SD0000246
BUF0000134
TEN0000123
OAK0000011
CLE0000000
JAC0000000
KC0000000
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6thTotal
ATL66219300100
SF255017421100
CHI512219261487
NYG2824386886
GB272315201480
SEA0211312358
WAS0021731033
MIN00244817
TB000051218
DAL00091514
STL0000134
PHI0000000
DET0000023
NO0000011
ARI0000000
CAR0000000

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4 Responses to “Playoff Projections - Week 13”

  1. Anonymous says:

    Could you check whether the wins for Saints and Raiders are correct? I think, in the software, it is falsely recorded as a Raiders win in week 11, because the minimum possible wins for the Saints is 4, although they already have 5 wins.

    Vice versa the minimum for the Raiders is 4, although they currently only have 3 wins.

  2. Anonymous says:

    The program does have the Week 11 game between Oak and NO reversed. You can see that by checking "show all games" instead of "show only unplayed games". I emailed Chris Cox about the error.

  3. Drew Brees as Jim Carey In Dumb and Dumber says:

    So you're saying there's a chance!!!

  4. Chris says:

    Okay, it is fixed on nfl-forecast.com. Sorry about that.

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