Playoff Projections - Week 16

As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to create a Monte Carlo season simulation. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

It's always fun to go back earlier in the season to see how far off the initial projections were. In Week 9, the projected division winners in the AFC were NE, PIT, HOU, and DEN. (BAL and PIT were about 50/50, as were NE and MIA(!).) The most likely wildcards were BAL and MIA. OAK looked to be a better shot than either IND or CIN. Ouch.

In the NFC the forecast winners were NYG, CHI, ATL, and SF, although CHI was only at 50%. The NFC wildcards were GB and SEA. Not too shabby.





AFC EAST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
NE100000
NYJ054433
MIA0244630
BUF0221167
AFC NORTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
BAL762400
CIN1241470
PIT1235512
CLE00298
AFC SOUTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
HOU100000
IND010000
TEN001000
JAC000100
AFC WEST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
DEN100000
SD09280
OAK08920
KC000100
NFC EAST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
WAS5525200
DAL3034360
NYG1541440
PHI000100
NFC NORTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
GB100000
MIN060400
CHI040600
DET000100
NFC SOUTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
ATL100000
NO0463024
TB0294625
CAR0252451
NFC WEST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
SF94600
SEA69400
STL00973
ARI00397


AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6thTotal
HOU9154000100
DEN87814000100
NE217681400100
BAL001461618100
CIN0001243753
PIT0001272646
IND00008218100
MIA0000011
BUF0000000
NYJ0000000
CLE0000000
JAC0000000
TEN0000000
KC0000000
OAK0000000
SD0000000
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6thTotal
ATL9072000100
SF66523060100
GB42468400100
SEA0420741695
WAS0025221572
NYG00213142251
DAL000300434
MIN000022124
CHI000022224
NO0000000
STL0000000
PHI0000000
DET0000000
CAR0000000
TB0000000
ARI0000000

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2 Responses to “Playoff Projections - Week 16”

  1. Anonymous says:

    I miss the "high leverage games of the week" part, you did last season.

  2. Anonymous says:

    At other Anonymous,
    The highest leverage game of the week is Cincinnati at Pittsburgh. Using Chris's playoff forecaster, if Pittsburgh wins, then the playoff probabilities are PIT-77%, CIN-22%, MIA-1%. If Cincinnati wins, the AFC playoff teams are set; Cincinnati is in, Pittsburgh and Miami are out.

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