Super Bowl Statistical Matchups

Here is your one-stop shop for all things advanced stats for SB 47. Team efficiency stats. Advanced team stats. Top individual performers from each team.

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9 Responses to “Super Bowl Statistical Matchups”

  1. Ian says:

    Thanks! Would love to see game probability estimate on that page.

  2. Anonymous says:

    Wow, San Francisco is net almost +100 EPA over Baltimore.

  3. Unknown says:

    Brian,

    Are you going to be at the Sloan Conf on Sports on March 1-2? http://www.sloansportsconference.com/

    (I would've asked this via email but since you encourage everything to appear in the comments :) )

    Michael

  4. Mike M. says:

    Keep one thing in mind, this model has been way, way off on the Ravens this postseason.

    The largest probability in the playoff was Broncos .78 over Ravens and the 3rd largest was Patroits .67 over Ravens.

    In the first round, of the 3 home teams favored by this model the Ravens were the smallest at .61 but yet won by the largest margin of any team, 24-9 (15 pts), go figure.

  5. Nate says:

    > Keep one thing in mind, this model has been way, way off
    > on the Ravens this postseason.

    It also seems like the Ravens are playing out of their minds this post-season -- way better than during the regular season. Usually that sort of thing ends with reversion to the mean. (Sometimes, the mean ends up moving instead. Notably, the 49ers are having a much better season that most people expected after their surprising performance last year.)

    Something to be aware of is that the variance in football is huge. People talk about single score games, but a lucky interception could easily make a net 14 point difference in a game.

    > In the first round, of the 3 home teams favored by this
    > model the Ravens were the smallest at .61 but yet won by the
    > largest margin of any team, 24-9 (15 pts), go figure.

    On a single-game sample, 15 points is well within expected variation. Baltimore also has an unusually large home field advantage which can be tricky to account for in modeling.

  6. Anonymous says:

    San fran wins.Public all over the Ravens

  7. Brian Burke says:

    Yes, I'll be at the conference.

  8. Elizabeth J. Neal says:

    In the first round, of the 3 home teams favored by this model the Ravens were the smallest at . feng shui

  9. Lewis N. Clark says:

    eam efficiency stats. Advanced team stats. Top individual performers from each team. fengshui

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