My analysis for SB47 is up over at
Deadspin and
Slate. I took a look at some of the more interesting decisions from the game--the fake FG, the intentional safety, and a couple 4th downs. But the biggest decisions in the game turned out to be the littlest ones. If there were ever a case study in the importance of saving your 2nd half timeouts, this game should be it.
Brian,
Not to imply anything wrong with the model, but there are certain things it doesn't factor because they're rarely impactful or can't be measured quantitively. Yet some of these things are possible for people to foresee).
After the Raven's unexpected wins, was there anything you think a knowledgable observer might have predicted would have run counter to the model? Or, more generally, circumstances when the model will be wrong (the Panther's coaching, etc.)?
Thanks
I assume you're talking about the pre-game probability model. Personnel changes would be the biggest: Injuries have a big effect, plus simple changes. Kaepernick replacing Smith. The Ravens' revamped o-line with McKinnie at LT.
Coaching, both in terms of leadership and x's and o's, is important, but that's going to show up in the season stats.
I think there are some rare exceptions to the fact that special teams play is essentially unpredictable. There are certainly benefits to having Devin Hester in his prime or Sebastian Janikowski on a team. The model ignores ST.
Interesting read! While watching the game the 4th and 2 following the roughing penalty struck me as the most egregious coaching mistake. I was actually surprised at how few bad decisions were made compared to a normal game, and we even saw the elusive good decision with the fake FG.
Having watched other 49ers games this season I'd note that Kaepernick mishandling the playclock/timeouts seems to be standard.
Also, I hope you don't read the comments at Deadspin because they drive me insane and I didn't even write the article...