Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: How Good Will NE Be in ’07?

This is hilarious to come back to. The article an...

2011-10-06T20:13:17.993-04:00

This is hilarious to come back to. The article and the comments.

Anonymous - At the moment, he's faring pretty...

2011-10-06T15:59:53.945-04:00

Anonymous -
At the moment, he's faring pretty well.
- Anonymous

How has Wes Welker fared when Randy Moss isn't...

2010-11-15T15:24:43.227-05:00

How has Wes Welker fared when Randy Moss isn't on the field with him?

The fact that you referred to Wes Welker as a &quo...

2010-08-12T23:35:40.102-04:00

The fact that you referred to Wes Welker as a "second tier acquisition" just goes to prove how unpredictable the game of football can be.

16-0

2009-11-17T10:38:50.908-05:00

16-0

To keep things simple, I kept the sack data out of...

2007-07-10T14:07:00.000-04:00

To keep things simple, I kept the sack data out of for the projections for the new receivers. Then when I applied the projections to my model (which requires sack data be included in pass efficiency), I added it back in.

Yes, I assumed the same sack data for NE as 2006's numbers.

One note: I'm not so interested in predicting exactly how many games the Patriot's will win, but what impact will the new players make. Is it 5 wins, 1 win, .5 wins? I really just wanted an "order-of-magnitude" estimation. People are predicting all kinds of crazy things for NE this year--like I wrote, there are even odds they'll win the SB.

I guess the question I should be asking is since y...

2007-07-10T13:57:00.000-04:00

I guess the question I should be asking is since your pass efficiency model uses sack data, how did you account for that in your estimation of NE's 2007 efficiency? Did you just estimate the number of sacks based on the 2006 sack rate and then use the average yards lost on a sack in 2006 to estimate sack yards lost?

That's what I thought. The reason I ask is that y...

2007-07-10T13:35:00.000-04:00

That's what I thought. The reason I ask is that you list New England's efficiency as being 6.81 YPA last season in the article. On NFL.com's stat page, they have New England as having had 3400 net yards passing on 527 attempts and 190 yards lost on 29 sacks. 3400/527 = 6.4516. 3400/(527+29) = 6.115. 3590/(527+29) = 6.457. 3590/527 = 6.81.

It seems like the New England's pass efficiency listed throws out all of the sack information. Shouldn't New England's pass efficiency be 6.115 YPA, as they gained 3400 yards on 556 pass plays (29 of which ended in sacks)?

I call it "True Offensive Pass Efficiency." It con...

2007-07-09T22:09:00.000-04:00

I call it "True Offensive Pass Efficiency." It consists of (total pass yards - sack yards) divided by (pass attempts + sacks). It's essentially net yards per drop-back.

It's very predictive of wins, but it's a jumble of lots of other stats: pass attempts, pass completions, yards per catch, yards after catch, sacks, sack yards. The only thing it doesn't capture about the passing game is interceptions, which I break out into a separate variable.

But what about the great Wes Welker?! Surely, he w...

2007-07-09T19:21:00.000-04:00

But what about the great Wes Welker?! Surely, he will do more than return kicks!

I would be curious to see what New England's expected win total in 2006 would have been with those passing stats. Quick question: For your pass efficiency stat, do you add sack yards lost back to the total passing yards?

Here are Borat's observations re: your analysis of...

2007-07-08T07:13:00.000-04:00

Here are Borat's observations re: your analysis of the impact of Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Adalius Thomas on the fortunes of the 2007 Patriots.

1. The analysis is VERY NICE. I find it to be outstanding, thoughtful and insightful.

2. Chad Jackson was a rookie in 2006. Rookies typically experience a steep learning curve in their rookie seasons, due to lack of familiarity to complex offensive post snap reads. In college they only run the pattern called in the huddle regardless of the post snap response by the defense. In the NFL WRs are expected to read the defensive reactions and alter their routes if appropriate. (Randy Moss was a rare exception to this axiom in 1998 when he teamed with WRs Chris Carter(Pro Bowl), Jake Reed and the leading NFC rusher Robert Smith, veteran QB Randall Cunningham (Pro Bowl)and 3 Pro Bowl offensive linemen - C jeff Christy, OG Randall McDaniel and OT Todd Steussie -not to mention the genius of offensive coordinator Brian Billick. Just look at the steam he's generated with Baltimore.) Jackson should contribute more to NE's offense than you've projected.)

3. Adalius Thomas's contribution is not quantified by the number of tackles or sacks. Only brain numb press box geeks count tackles and assists on gameday. True students of football defensive strategy know that AD's geater contribution is found in his versatility. His ability to line up at every position on defense causes confusion and sometimes mehem for opposing QBs and OCs. The confusion this creates allows for others to make tackles and sacks and in better places for the Pats.

Well I must go to church now. I must pary for my grandchildren as well as my country's problem of transport.

HIGH FIVE!!!!!