tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post1720862264130550129..comments2007-07-10T09:42:23.661-04:00Brian Burkenoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-45230130121288199762007-07-10T09:42:00.000-04:002007-07-10T09:42:00.000-04:00The predicitions do not yet incorporate personnel changes, which I think are often given far too much weight. They are meant as an unbiased starting point, based on the best hard information we have--last year's performance. <BR/><BR/>I’ve recently tried to account for personnel changes, at least for veteran acquisitions. Rookies would be too hard to project. For example, I just did a study on NE’s big name acquisitions which you can find on the main page.<BR/><BR/>I’m currently working on Trent Greene’s impact in MIA, assuming he remains conscious all season.Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-26299122576771187902007-07-10T02:46:00.000-04:002007-07-10T02:46:00.000-04:00Hey there. Love the site. Just have a question to ask about your me vs Vegas article. Do your predictions take no account for roster changes? For instance, Vegas says KC will win 8 games, you say 9 and I think both of you are crazy. That's because KC plans on starting Brodie Croyle at QB who is essentially a rookie. If Trent Green were the QB, I think 8 or 9 wins would be a very accurate estimate for the Chiefs. If they play Croyle for 16 games, I reckon they'll win 4 to 5.Endahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15225621128581084640noreply@blogger.com