Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: Luck and NFL Outcomes 1

I've always felt like luck played a big role. For...

2009-11-02T16:56:19.916-05:00

I've always felt like luck played a big role. For instance, take fumbles and tipped balls. The players themselves can cause these actions, but whether they actually result in a turnover usually involves a great deal of chance.

A couple of years ago I looked at fumbles lost and one team (TEN I think), fumbled 20+ times, but only lost 2 or 3. Conversely there was one team (

Brian; This is your seminal work. Brilliant! I sti...

2009-10-24T14:18:57.866-04:00

Brian;
This is your seminal work. Brilliant!
I still don't feel even us hardcore stats
gurus have digested the consequences of your findings.
1) If my logic is sound does it follow from a 48% skill NFL league, that each observation (1 game in a 16 game league) contributes only 3% towards the 'skill bank' so to speak.Or rather our certainity in the skill stats we

Yes, it assumes teams are trying to win games.

2008-11-22T21:58:23.003-05:00

Yes, it assumes teams are trying to win games.

Another potential problem with this study is the a...

2008-11-22T21:00:04.870-05:00

Another potential problem with this study is the assumption that all teams are trying to win every game. Teams that have locked up home field advantage in the playoffs sometimes tend to play any remaining regular season games like a pre-season games, resting some key players and pulling out most starters in the second half. I don't think this is a good strategy because of the effect it can have

Fred-You're right. Thanks for the correction.

2008-11-21T15:12:27.408-05:00

Fred-You're right. Thanks for the correction.

I know this is an old post, but I've just stumbled...

2008-11-21T15:04:34.113-05:00

I know this is an old post, but I've just stumbled upon your site. It has been a pleasure reading it, btw.

Just a question - it appears to me from your graphs that the most common record is 9-7 followed by 10-6, and not 10-6 followed by 9-7 as you stated. Am I mis-reading your graphs? The 9-7/10-6 scenario feels more intuitively obvious to me.

Keep up the great work on the

First, I think it's important to point out that th...

2007-08-01T14:15:14.299-04:00

First, I think it's important to point out that the "best" computer models had a test set of only 2 weeks. From what I've seen, it's not terribly difficult to find 2-week periods of very high predictive success.

By DVOA standards, the overall better team wins about 63% of the time, but that total varies significantly from year to year.

<Bee in bonnet>
To me,

Okay, I see where you're going with this...I'll wa...

2007-08-01T14:13:14.280-04:00

Okay, I see where you're going with this...I'll wait to see part II before I say anything else.

I'm not doing a regression of 40 yd sprint times o...

2007-08-01T14:04:09.877-04:00

I'm not doing a regression of 40 yd sprint times or bench press reps. I'm not basing it on regression models or correlations at all.

You'll see more when I'm able to post the rest of the study. Basically I just need to know what the win distribution of a theoretical skill-only league looks like. By a skill-only league, I just mean no luck is involved in determining the winner. The better

Neat post. I am curious though - what exactly is i...

2007-08-01T08:46:55.865-04:00

Neat post. I am curious though - what exactly is included in skill? Agility, quickness, 40-yard dash times, strength...those kinds of things that are quantifiable? What then is included in luck? Bounces of the ball, stuff like that.

I think there is a third category that falls outside skill and luck - the "intangibles", the things that are mostly mental and can't be assigned a value.