tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post2553897559033775338..comments2008-11-19T15:07:09.721-05:00Brian Burkenoreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-19987246012645323972008-11-19T15:07:00.000-05:002008-11-19T15:07:00.000-05:00OK. I see what you are saying. Let me try it another way. Using your example of 83% win probabilitiy, this equates to a fair money line of about -488, or using the "dog", +488. If I look into my NFL database, and grind the numbers (assuming an average expected total), this equates to a spread of about 10.5 (not sure how you arrived at 7.73, but this is another question). Therfore, if the line is +8, the "side" to take (i.e. the one with relative value) would be the favorite, and if the published line is +14, the side to bet would be to take the points and the dog. <BR/><BR/>How long has this model been around? Is there enough data to statistically show a high confidence level that it is any better than flipping a coin? It seems sound, but would be curious if its been in action long enough to prove its worth.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-86356539549660742162008-11-18T16:54:00.000-05:002008-11-18T16:54:00.000-05:00To understand the expected winning margin using the Win Probability one would need to track the winning margin for each WinProb, i.e.,0.83 wins by an average of 7.73 points.<BR/><BR/>For the year (2008), the Point Spread Favorite has won 111, lost 46, a percentage of 70.7, virtually identical to the 70.4% above. Again, won their games, not against the spread.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-21699694921230571112008-11-18T09:44:00.000-05:002008-11-18T09:44:00.000-05:00How can you determine the accuracy of this system ATS? What you are giving here is a probability of a win. I can convert this to a M/L, but how do I know what "side" your model is predicting to win?<BR/><BR/>Good Stuff here!<BR/>ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-63443615955251554512008-11-14T17:27:00.000-05:002008-11-14T17:27:00.000-05:00Dan, right on. Would love to see the moneyline results, taking all the teams as predicted. Small chore to figure that out though.Free Sports Bettinghttp://www.freesportsbet.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-78060813501448842072008-11-14T15:15:00.000-05:002008-11-14T15:15:00.000-05:00Dan, are you talking about the Kelly criterion?Sports Picks Systemhttp://www.sportspickssystem.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-48529267293732209902008-11-14T12:31:00.000-05:002008-11-14T12:31:00.000-05:00You could also compare the information your win probabilities gives versus that in the Vegas money line. ie using your % causes the representation of results to use n bits, versus m bits if the Vegas line is used as a basis for generating the encodingDan Rosenberrynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-79596833287132978002008-11-14T12:29:00.000-05:002008-11-14T12:29:00.000-05:00It appears that you're working to maximize your accuracy with respect to win probability. You could measure your relative predictive accuracy versus the money line.<BR/><BR/>If you consider a game to be 90% one way and the line is listing it as only 80%, you should bet about 82% of your bankroll on the favorite to optimize the growth of the log of your bankroll. You could further refine this by treating simultaneous games as a joint optimization problem as that's more realistic, but it's more complicated as you often don't have enough money to cover all the desired bets.Dan Rosenberrynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-26062813391446554702008-11-14T11:50:00.000-05:002008-11-14T11:50:00.000-05:00Keep in mind this is not intended to be an ATS system. I don't want to mislead anyone.Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-31662812202552343052008-11-14T11:27:00.000-05:002008-11-14T11:27:00.000-05:00I've been keeping an eye on the ats record and it's currently 44 wins and 54 losses for 45%Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-63289101110962726202008-11-14T01:08:00.000-05:002008-11-14T01:08:00.000-05:00Do you by any chance know the system's ATS record?davy917http://openid.aol.com/davy917noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-64060540683033530232008-11-13T12:04:00.000-05:002008-11-13T12:04:00.000-05:00Yes. 69-29 (70.4%).Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-9367036187566603532008-11-13T12:00:00.000-05:002008-11-13T12:00:00.000-05:00what is this system's straight-up record so far this season?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-70211107726134672412008-11-13T11:55:00.000-05:002008-11-13T11:55:00.000-05:00Do these probabilities take into account home field advantage?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com