Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: Onside Kicks 2 -- Win Probability Analysis

Does this logic still hold after the kickoff rule ...

2011-10-23T06:32:43.273-04:00

Does this logic still hold after the kickoff rule change? I'd imagine the expected field position is around the 22 or 23 by now, although that ten yard difference is made up for by the 10 yards better field position if you recovered? Has anyone worked out the effect?

Where can I get the raw data?

2011-10-11T14:28:25.163-04:00

Where can I get the raw data?

After the Superbowl, it seems the Sean Payton must...

2010-02-10T14:11:11.377-05:00

After the Superbowl, it seems the Sean Payton must have read this article.

It's really just rounding error, as those few ...

2009-11-29T14:38:28.554-05:00

It's really just rounding error, as those few yards don't make a big difference in the game's WP. The avg starting fld pos after a kick is actually the 33. The median is the 28.

But you're right in that it doesn't make the example very convincing. I'll adjust the example very slightly just for illustrative purposes.

Math does not compute. 1) Kicking deep is 44% WP ...

2009-11-17T23:18:29.808-05:00

Math does not compute.

1) Kicking deep is 44% WP (opposition has 56% WP and gets ball at roughly their own 25-30 yd line)

2) Successful onside kick is 56% WP (You get ball at own 40).

Why would you have the EXACT same WP getting the ball at your own 40 as the opponent does getting the ball at his own 25-30?

You're right. Also, remember when you are tal...

2009-10-29T04:25:34.040-04:00

You're right. Also, remember when you are talking about how the other team would adjust, remember that the biggest way to defend against a successful onside kick involves changing personnel. A kicker could always audiblize out of an onside kick if the other team had the wrong men on the field.

In the "what do you have to lose" department, I'm always shocked that losing coaches don't get a little more experimental. Think about the Wildcat. The Dolphins who (1-15 the previous year) were playing at the Patriots (18-1) the previous year. It was obvious what was going to happen if they played it straight. The Wildcat conceptually made sense but most coaches still wouldn't experiment with it. Yet if anything, I feel like teams like Buffalo and Cleveland are getting even more conservative. What the hell do you have to lose?

Drew, it would only be professional suicide 40% of...

2009-10-29T00:48:21.146-04:00

Drew, it would only be professional suicide 40% of the time. What would a coach like Jim Zorn have to lose?

Just eyeballing the chart, it appears that an onside kick, on average, increases a team's WP by about 3%. Maybe Brian could compute a more accurate number. So with about 5 kickoffs per game, a team that always onside kicks would increase its chances of winning by 15%. Over the course of the season, that would turn an 8-8 team into a 10-6 team.

Obviously a team that rarely kicked deep would lose the element of surprise and thus their success rate would decline. But as others have pointed out, your kickoff coverage when kicking deep would improve due to the uncertainty. So let's say that a team randomly kicks onside half the time at a 40% success rate. Even if the WP advantage shrunk to 2%, you'd still increase your chances of winning by 5%, which is nearly an additional win over the course of the season for an average team. I wonder how that would compare to the benefit of never punting.

If a big underdog tied the game late, a good coach...

2009-10-28T12:12:38.189-04:00

If a big underdog tied the game late, a good coach would be aware that an onsides kick, even from a normal kickoff alignment, is a real possibility. We've seen teams in recent years go for two at the end of a game when an extra point would tie the game, an onsides kick in your situation isn't that far off.

I understand the math, Brian, but imagine being th...

2009-10-28T10:25:36.239-04:00

I understand the math, Brian, but imagine being the first coach to onside in a tie game with 2:30 on the clock....professional suicide. Although it certainly makes more sense for a big underdog where you have less to lose than, say, New England playing Buffalo or something like that. Interesting stuff....my brother's a high school coach and I've been sending him your articles - especially the one about that coach in Arkansas that never punts. Keep up the good work.