Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: Thoughts on the Apparent Unimportance of Run Defen...

Al-I get you. Good point.

2009-05-24T21:58:35.088-04:00

Al-I get you. Good point.

"Game situation" may have an impact beyond late-ga...

2009-05-24T21:13:34.459-04:00

"Game situation" may have an impact beyond late-game runs.

Houston Texans fan suffered through a number of years when it would have been reasonable to call the whole second half "late-game." When you're trailing by 3 touchdowns, the opposition is going to defend pass first. This will inflate your run (per attempt) stats, and deflate their run defense stats. The general rule is, your offense will normally produce better stats doing the unexpected.

This concept may well play out on a smaller scale throughout the game -- especially on 3rd downs (but sometimes on 2nd and long as well). The Texans faced a lot of 3rd and long, and 3rd and VERY long, situations. Since the opposing defense was defending pass first, I would guess that our yards/rush were inflated by these situations (especially draw plays).

On the other hand, the opposition typically faced a lot of 3rd and short, and 3rd and VERY short, situations. Since our run defense was not good, in those situations the opposing team tended to do the expected; they ran. They only picked up one or two yards, but they usually got the first down. So, it tended to make our run defense look better and the opposition rushing offense look worse. (Note also how the situation impacts the TYPE of run play. They run plays with a high probability of gaining one or two yards and little probability of gaining 20 yards. No draw plays here.)

First down runs when the game is still close may be the closest to a pure measure?? I' be curious to see what those numbers look like -- and how they compare with the full game stats.

I'm rushing, so the above isn't as clear as I'd like it to be.

These days, though, stopping the run doesn't seem ...

2009-05-22T10:54:19.792-04:00

These days, though, stopping the run doesn't seem like the only way to force teams into third-and-longs. A lot of teams use those little 3- and 4-yard passes on early downs as substitutes for their running games.

As a Vikings fan, I've enjoyed watching our impregnable run defense for the last few years, but I'd gladly give up some of it for better pass defense. I've advocated trading Pat Williams for years.

I have a very simple explanation for this. In the...

2009-05-22T10:43:44.310-04:00

I have a very simple explanation for this.

In the NFL, it's all about PASSING the ball effectively. Whoever moves the ball through the air most effectively wins the game most of the time.

But if you aren't stopping the run, you're not going to have as many quality opportunities to make the kind of big plays in the passing game that tilts the balance. You're not going to have teams in 3rd and long, you're not going to be able to get your sub-packages on the field, you're not going to be able to apply all-out pressure as much.

So you have to stop the run to give your defense an opportunity to make some plays in the passing game. Once you've done that, then you actually need to MAKE PLAYS in the passing game.

The Vikings are an unusual case because they can win the ground battle on both sides of the ball but they're at a disadvantage in the air war.

Good discussion. I'll be really interested to see ...

2009-05-22T09:45:08.329-04:00

Good discussion. I'll be really interested to see what results can be found when game situation is considered. Intuitively, it seems like it's critical for a team to be able to play good pass D when they have the lead. In terms of Run D, it just seems like you need to be decent at it. That is, I'd assume teams with very bad run defense in close game situations don't win much. Once you're average or better, maybe it doesn't make as much difference? Anyway, I look forward to seeing what you come up with.