Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: Zorn Is My Hero 2

@anon: Your "math vs. football knowledge"...

2009-10-27T13:41:37.653-04:00

@anon:
Your "math vs. football knowledge" argument confounds me.
This is like saying "I know how to run an offense but I don't know anything about defense. Football is about offense, scoring a ton of points... just look at the Saints this year or the Pats a couple years ago. That's how you win."
As with anything, there's a balance... the "football" people will continue to reinforce the same old conventional wisdom, even if the pure numbers don't support it. The math people will try to get people to think about things a different way.
You may be correct that in this specific situation, with all of its many variables, the conventional wisdom should win out. But just because it worked out that way this time doesn't mean it's the correct call. Nobody says you "should have taken the points" on 4th and 1 when the team scores a touchdown. Sometimes you need to take calculated risks earlier in the game so you don't have to take more desparate risks later on.

Being a Baltimore Ravens fan, you probably couldn&...

2009-10-04T16:06:52.075-04:00

Being a Baltimore Ravens fan, you probably couldn't help but notice that fourth down call at the goal line by New England in the second quarter. How good of a call was that by Belichick statistically speaking?

I know football but I am horrible at math. Footbal...

2009-10-04T09:07:34.443-04:00

I know football but I am horrible at math. Football is about momentum and emotion more than mathematical probability.
In football you take the three and the lead. You don't know if this might end up a 3-0 ballgame.
You make them kick a long field goal they might miss or mishandle the snap give them every chance to screw up.
Here is some simple math. He passed on a FG 3 points he gave up a TD instead of a FG plus 4 points. They lost by 6 and the team was in field goal range when they time ran out.
The safe calls are safe calls for a reason. In what would have been a defensive struggle at worst he turned into a come from behind victory at best.
You don't go for it or go for two until late in the game when the risk vs reward becomes clearer.

Yup. If I said 2.6 I meant 2.4. Sorry. That might ...

2009-09-30T13:46:09.461-04:00

Yup. If I said 2.6 I meant 2.4. Sorry. That might reduce the FG option value a bit.

True about the variance. If the Redskins were confident they were a significantly stronger team that might point more toward taking the 3 points.

Hey Brian. I love the blog and I usually like def...

2009-09-30T13:30:28.910-04:00

Hey Brian. I love the blog and I usually like defending going for it on 4th down but I've got a couple questions:

why is a FG worth 2.6 instead of 2.4 if, as you stated, the kickoff is worth .6 points?

Why no consideration of removing the variance involved in the 68% chance of scoring a TD? If you believe your team is superior, there is a correct argument that guaranteeing some points is more important than maximizing Expected Points.
I think I read an article here on this very websiteabout superior teams minimizing variance and inferior teams should maximize it. If it wasn't from here the statement is still a pretty obvious one.

This analysis is fine for the computer, but makes ...

2009-09-30T12:54:42.959-04:00

This analysis is fine for the computer, but makes no football sense. Take the 3 points and kick off. Zorn is making decisions based on last weeks game which has no baring on the Detroit game. So what if he has problems scoring TDs inside the 20. Take the points and the early lead and then see what happens. If you do go for it, don't run wide left to the side you always run. How about play action or a rollout option? And why run where Cooley is blocking -- good receiver, adequate blocker, especially in short-yardage.

As for taking the penalty to stop a 50 yard FG. Dumb! Dumb! Dumb! The 99 yard drive may be improbable -- because it was! They did stop them! Get your tired team off the field and see if Hansen makes the FG. Is a 3 point deficit so bad in the first qtr? There is also the possibility that the kick could have been blocked, or perhaps a miss and the Skins get the ball on the 40. Even if they did stop them chances are they would have ended up kicking the FG anyway assuming they gain 6 - 9 yards. Two bad decisions on the first two drives set the tone in a tight ball game.

Kiran The break even point would be 4th-and-1 con...

2009-09-29T08:15:30.152-04:00

Kiran

The break even point would be 4th-and-1 conversion percentage of 30%. At that level there would be no difference between kicking or going-for-it, in terms of expected points.

I don't know the team specifics, but if you can't gain a single yard at least 3 times out of 10 then you're probably playing the wrong sport.

As it turned out they failed, but presumably Zorn thought his team had at least a 30% chance of converting.

This is interesting because last year Zorn was amo...

2009-09-28T17:32:37.758-04:00

This is interesting because last year Zorn was among the most conservative coaches in terms of going for it on 4th down, according to the Football Outsiders Almanac.

Good point, Kiran. Phil-It could be. As of halfwa...

2009-09-28T13:12:23.552-04:00

Good point, Kiran.

Phil-It could be. As of halfway through last year they were significantly up. It's worth a fresh update.

Have fourth-down gambles been happening more in th...

2009-09-28T12:58:54.206-04:00

Have fourth-down gambles been happening more in the past year or two, since it's been more a topic of debate?

Hi Brian, love the blog. I am a die hard Skins fan...

2009-09-28T12:44:44.935-04:00

Hi Brian, love the blog. I am a die hard Skins fan, and even with the pain of yesterday's loss, I only have one complaint about this post - the EP measure used to justify Zorn's call doesn't take into account the probability of the Redskins' specific personnel converting the TD on a run play, and instead generalizes to the league average of about a 68% chance of making a TD in a similar situation.

Any Skins fan can tell you that the run offense has been particularly anemic this year, to the point that even positive yardage against the Lions defense is never a certainty. At the time of Zorn's 4th and 1 call, he had a gimpy running back (Portis was listed as Questionable on the injury report with ankle issues), and an offensive line that could not support runs to the right hand side and was weak at the most critical position in the Bugel/Gibbs run attack, RG (Randy Thomas, the stellar starter, was injured last week and replaced by a significantly less talented and experienced 2nd-year man). Considering these weaknesses, the Lions stacked the left side of the Redskins line and held Portis. I would say that the weaknesses in personnel meant that, for a run play, the chance of success for the Skins there was significantly lower than 68%, and probably lower than 50% considering how the run game had played out to that point.

If I were Zorn, I would have still went for it, but called a play action pass or lined up Campbell in the shotgun.

Regards,
Kiran

No thoughts on Belichick going for it on 4th and 1...

2009-09-28T11:40:47.413-04:00

No thoughts on Belichick going for it on 4th and 1 from his own 26 with a 6-pt lead?

Looks like he has your 4th down cheat sheet.

Brian, This posts brings me to a question I've...

2009-09-28T10:16:42.066-04:00

Brian,
This posts brings me to a question I've been trying to find a concrete answer to for a while. First, I don't have a problem with Zorn's decision making considering down and risk.

Second, I've been "studying" the realtionship between first downs and points. There seems to be a clear disadvantage to trying to methodically move the ball down the field. I.E teams with a lot of first downs compared to their points don't seem to be able generate points going forward. I haven't done anything concrete and found it interesting enough to suggest it as something you might want to look into as well.

Great point. Is it Zorn's fault that his playe...

2009-09-28T05:56:32.502-04:00

Great point. Is it Zorn's fault that his players let Stafford go 21 yards on 3rd and 13?

The most telling point of that game was how Washington's players didn't seem to understand that they had 8 seconds at the end of the game. When the hook and lateral went off I was shotuing at the screen for the receiver of the second lateral to run out of bounds. That would have converted the 4th down and left them with time for one final play.

The Lions were all pumped up for the 8 second play and could well have been put off if the Redskins had managed two plays at the end of the game.

Overall, not the coach's fault. The Redskins lost because his players couldn't make a single yard on 4th down against a team that had lost 19 straight.