tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post3779005817670927017..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Saturday Division Round AnalysisUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-40318017780222597392012-01-18T19:46:44.292-05:002012-01-18T19:46:44.292-05:00Brian:
No additional analysis needed on the SF-NO...Brian:<br /><br /><i>No additional analysis needed on the SF-NO situation. Simply put, the numbers say that a 2-point lead with 30 sec to play (and no timeouts) is safer than a 5/7-point lead with 2:00+ (and 1 timeout).</i><br /><br />Do those "numbers" reflect who was playing in that game? In other words, are they based upon a statistical analysis of the New Orleans offense versus the San Francisco defense, or an analysis of compiled data for all teams?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-39218324342328741362012-01-18T16:53:32.639-05:002012-01-18T16:53:32.639-05:00To use an analogy to another sport, scoring the TD...To use an analogy to another sport, scoring the TD here is like taking a shot on goal in hockey. It may not be the absolute best possible play, but it's never a bad play.Rob Fnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-47189230820899994002012-01-18T16:51:34.391-05:002012-01-18T16:51:34.391-05:00Yeah, so you had a gut feeling...just like Smith h...Yeah, so you had a gut feeling...just like Smith had a gut feeling that scoring the TD was the correct thing to do. If the point of these analyses is to determine which is actually correct, we have to go on more than gut feeling. Because invariably, our guts are going to be wrong some of the time.<br /><br />Again, what would your gut have said in all of the other what-if scenarios I listed? There are a lot of variables to take into account. I know I'd be a lot more frustrated if a player took a knee erroneously than if he scored a TD erroneously. So all I was saying was that in the heat of the battle, the default play has to be to score the TD. Only under predetermined circumstances should players be thinking about taking a knee instead of scoring a TD. Losing and late in the game, driving, clock ticking, formations to set up, defenses to read, tacklers to evade, etc., I just can't blame a player for scoring a TD.Rob Fnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-27606903709811457382012-01-17T13:47:11.506-05:002012-01-17T13:47:11.506-05:00Rob F, why would I need to "KNOW". That...Rob F, why would I need to "KNOW". That's absurd. Should a QB not throw a pass unless he KNOWS it won't be intercepted? I had a gut feeling based on the training I've received (reading this site), which because it has been good training, turned out to be right. There's no reason that players can't be subjected to training for end of game situations so that their gut instincts are more likely to be right than wrong. I think its completely reasonable to place the blame on SF coaches, not for saying something before that specific play, but for not preparing A. Smith before this game for a situation like that.Boston Chrisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-56145650450211701702012-01-17T11:06:49.092-05:002012-01-17T11:06:49.092-05:00Brian--just wanted to see the WPA difference betwe...Brian--just wanted to see the WPA difference between the two game states, that's all, should have been more specific in the original comment.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-84056924304084371812012-01-16T22:14:21.031-05:002012-01-16T22:14:21.031-05:00Sorry, in the previous post I forgot the pass to D...Sorry, in the previous post I forgot the pass to Davis on the previous drive, so maybe it's 34 or 35 passes for 200 or 210 yards. The point is that he gained 80 passing yards on the last drive that really shouldn't have happened if Harbaugh plays it right.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-74078451547369831582012-01-16T22:11:56.838-05:002012-01-16T22:11:56.838-05:00Regarding Alex Smith:
Brian, your contributor sa...Regarding Alex Smith: <br /><br />Brian, your contributor said that he essentially "ditched his Trent Dilfer label" in the game.<br /><br />But isn't the actual truth that if Harbaugh coaches properly and has Smith take that knee, the Niners win 26-24 (almost surely), and Smith has his typical average game (33 passes, 165 yards, one key run, essentially 10/14 points scored due to anything he did). He had a very nice first TD drive, then had a 3 yard TD drive, two 3 and outs after turnovers that resulted in field goals to reach 20 points, then a drive that was one huge run by Gore followed by a 3 and out for a FG to make it 23 points.<br /><br />Finally he made a great pass to Davis, and that drive should have resulted in the game winning field goal, let's call that 14 points because it's really a TD drive but he takes the knee on the 1 yard line.<br /><br />I just don't see how that's good, when you are playing against the Saints' defense.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-74956835251911944292012-01-16T22:03:20.452-05:002012-01-16T22:03:20.452-05:00Great post! Seems the suggestion that Alex Smith t...Great post! Seems the suggestion that Alex Smith take a knee at the 1 yard line has clearly hit a nerve.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-48141179419807448202012-01-16T21:37:15.086-05:002012-01-16T21:37:15.086-05:00What if Alex Smith had indeed taken a knee at the ...What if Alex Smith had indeed taken a knee at the 1, and then cast an absentee ballot for Mitt Romney in South Carolina?MGnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-62151448575329872002012-01-16T21:35:03.842-05:002012-01-16T21:35:03.842-05:00That's great, but did you KNOW ahead of time t...That's great, but did you KNOW ahead of time that you were actually correct, or did you just think that was the right play? What we're saying here is that we're trying to maximize win potential on every situation, but in order to do that, you have to KNOW for sure that what you were suggesting was correct.<br /><br />Would you have been thinking the same thing if NO had all 3 TO's left? How about just 2? Or none? What if there was 3 minutes left instead of 2? 3:30? 4? 8? Where are the cutoffs for when sliding inbounds is the right move instead of actually scoring the TD? This is what I mean when I say it's going to be hard to KNOW these things presnap and convey them to the players on field in a timely fashion when they're under the constraints of the play clock.Rob Fnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-31693678728744294902012-01-16T21:01:15.889-05:002012-01-16T21:01:15.889-05:00In response to the comment way above about trying ...In response to the comment way above about trying to do it in real time...I was...I was yelling at Alex Smith to go down almost immediately after he got the first down and it was clear the path to the end zone was wide open. Of course....he didn't seem to hear me...Boston Chrisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-43994424836054213172012-01-16T18:37:25.576-05:002012-01-16T18:37:25.576-05:00Brian, only thing about the other players going do...Brian, only thing about the other players going down is that in all cases the team could run the clock down to zero; this situation was different in that SF could have kicked the FG and still lost. In short, my guess is that the SF would want him to score the TD in this situation (even though that want is wrong).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-29341588264354093302012-01-16T17:32:33.546-05:002012-01-16T17:32:33.546-05:00#1 I'm not a statistician. I'm an ex-fight...#1 I'm not a statistician. I'm an ex-fighter pilot. I'm well aware of what's possible in heat-of-the-battle situations. Spare me the lecture.<br /><br />#2 I'm not calling on Alex Smith to take a knee at the one unilaterally without any coaching being involved. I'm calling for the SF coaching staff to be aware of considerations like this and instruct their players if they feel it's to their advantage. The comment about this being "a betrayal" of the team misses the point entirely.<br /><br />#3 SF was already well inside "FG range" (oops, I meant "FG attempt range"), so it's entirely conceivable they would have a gameplan for chewing time off the clock.<br /><br />#4 What moron would expect someone to stop in a full sprint? Don't QBs slide all the time? <br /><br />#5 Lastly, I'll say it again: It's been done before and it has worked. So spare us all the sanctimonious 'ethos of football' nonsense. The ethos of football is winning, and in so doing, making decisions that give your team the best chance of winning. Ethos my a$$.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-39892009581117963372012-01-16T17:05:32.179-05:002012-01-16T17:05:32.179-05:00Also should be "1st and goal on the opponents...Also should be "1st and goal on the opponents 1", not "1st and 10 on the opponents 1".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-11940272901667846812012-01-16T17:02:00.971-05:002012-01-16T17:02:00.971-05:00My post above was referring to Anon 2 posts above ...My post above was referring to Anon 2 posts above (the NO / Graham final drive scenario, not the obvious SF / Alex smith scenario), someone responded while I was typing my comment.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-61470783375184428672012-01-16T17:00:52.078-05:002012-01-16T17:00:52.078-05:00Anon above - I was thinking the same thing, but th...Anon above - I was thinking the same thing, but then I remembered SF didn't even use their last timeout on the final drive. They used it with 3 seconds left when Brees was attempting a hail mary to reset their defense.<br /><br />That being said, the outcome shouldn't change the hypothetical probabilities.<br /><br />It comes down to an option between two choices. Would you rather have:<br /><br />a. A guaranteed touchdown, with the opponents having 1:35 and a timeout to respond<br /><br />or <br /><br />b. 1st and 10 on the opponents 1, with about 1:35 and the opponent with 0 timeouts.<br /><br />Again, its funny that in the real game the timeout was meaningless because SF didn't use it, but still, you can't take that outcome bias into consideration.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-68973528447221258292012-01-16T17:00:37.146-05:002012-01-16T17:00:37.146-05:00This is the problem with a purely quantitative ana...This is the problem with a purely quantitative analysis of a situation that has significant qualitative variables. For Alex to have taken a knee on that particular play would have been problematic for several reasons: (1) Harbaugh would have excoriated him for that type of unconventional move; (2) it would have been perceived as a betrayal by his team mates; and (3) it goes against the ethos of playing football and scoring points. Also, what football player is going to take a knee as the end zone comes into view after two perfectly executed blocks? Do you have any idea how hard it is to stop in the middle of a full sprint?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-65625057070810606512012-01-16T16:44:42.278-05:002012-01-16T16:44:42.278-05:00Brian, I disagree with your post on NO going down ...Brian, I disagree with your post on NO going down at the 1. <br /><br />I will start with your 3rd point, that NO gains "nothing" if they score on 1st or second down. This is, IMHO, clearly false, as even forcing SF to burn their final TO improves NO's probability of winning; for example, if SF didn't have the TO, they would have lost about 10-15 more seconds running a spike during the final drive, which means that they would have kicking a FG instead of running a play to score a TD.<br /><br />So I think it is clear that, assuming that NO scores a TD, that it is better for NO to take a knee at the 1 and then score the TD no matter what down they score on or what type of plays they run. It would be even better to waste more time by running on 1st and 2nd down without scoring and then going for the TD on 3rd and 4th down (SF would have had less than 20 seconds left in these scenarios). <br /><br />Of course, the problem is that you are taking 100% chance of a TD and reducing it by a pretty large amount, especially if you then try to burn time on 1st down or 2nd down.<br /><br />So the real question is do they gain more WP by making SF burn there TO + the time it takes them to score than they lose from the chance of them not scoring the TD? Your response doesn't address this question, it merely hand waves this issue (though I wouldn't be surprised if your numbers are correct).<br /><br />So, once again, I make a request for some more detailed analysis on end game "when not to score/when to let your opponent score" questions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-25713478865851618652012-01-16T16:39:52.094-05:002012-01-16T16:39:52.094-05:00"In addition, the 49ers defense had been domi..."In addition, the 49ers defense had been dominant for most of the game, so I don't think it makes sense to take a knee given that fact"<br /><br />Umm.. no matter how dominant the 49ers defense was playing, taking a knee in that situation would have been virtually a guaranteed win. In fact, the Saints offense could have been swapped with a Division 3 college team the next drive and taking the knee still would have been the better moveAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-68549765492145264612012-01-16T16:28:18.653-05:002012-01-16T16:28:18.653-05:00Your point that Alex Smith should have taken a kne...Your point that Alex Smith should have taken a knee is interesting, but shows how different statisticians are from football players. To suggest that a football player sprinting toward the end zone and the go-ahead touchdown should take a knee shows very little understanding of what it is actually like - in the real world - to play the game. Also, it was a play designed to get a first down. It's not as if the 49ers were planning on that play getting into the end zone. In addition, the 49ers defense had been dominant for most of the game, so I don't think it makes sense to take a knee given that fact.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-25279463324099886372012-01-16T16:27:23.961-05:002012-01-16T16:27:23.961-05:00Maybe. But I do know it's been done before, so...Maybe. But I do know it's been done before, so we know it's certainly possible. I can think of three occasions, the most notable being Maurice Jone-Drew in November 2009. It happened the same day as Belichick's infamous 4th and 2, so it got lost in the tsunami of media coverage. But you're right--they had time to think, and were already well within FG range.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-91241191506252236922012-01-16T16:22:47.527-05:002012-01-16T16:22:47.527-05:00Had Smith downed it at the one and Akers missed th...Had Smith downed it at the one and Akers missed the subsequent FG, there might still be a site or two like this claiming it was smart, but unlikely he ever plays another down of organized football.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-85172914312843012542012-01-16T16:10:13.532-05:002012-01-16T16:10:13.532-05:00I guess another way to put it would be, the defaul...I guess another way to put it would be, the default play for any player is to score a TD if able. A player would have to be absolutely certain that scoring a TD is not the best play if you expect him to take a knee.<br /><br />That first knee (Smith at the 1) would be hard to determine ahead of time. The second, third, and fourth knees (after getting the first, down, he takes a knee while burning clock to set up a 4th down FG) would be easy to determine. Those are extreme examples, obviously, but you can see how after taking the first knee, it is a lot easier to analyze the data quickly enough to make the right call.Rob Fnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-90107854507372049242012-01-16T15:42:59.470-05:002012-01-16T15:42:59.470-05:00I know what you're saying, but when a team is ...I know what you're saying, but when a team is in the heat of the battle, as you accurately described it, unless there is a timeout just one or two plays prior to the play in question, there is probably not going to be enough time to analyze the in-game situation and come up with a play call, and then relay specific instructions to players on whether or not to score a TD, if they happen to get the chance. I mean, really, what were the chances the Smith was going to be running one in from the 28 there? 1 in 500? Sure, after the fact, we can cherry pick a spot in a game where, if we knew before the play what was going to transpire, we could tell Smith to take a knee at the 1 without going out of bounds (which, by the way, would have been pretty hard while running full speed down the sideline while being chased). You could also say something like, "anyone who is inside the 10, about to score, take a knee before scoring," so that way everyone is aware, but still, that requires time to analyze the down, distance, time, and TO's left, in addition to getting a play called to players who are actively thinking more about formations, routes, blocking assignments, etc. I don't know if that's a realistic thing to accomplish in 40 seconds, over and over again throughout the game, even with a computer and all the data right in front of you. <br /><br />I really don't know, so I ask this sincerely: have you, or anyone else, tried to do this, in real time? In other words, have you watched a game, input all the appropriate factors, and decide, before the snap, what the right thing to do would be, in a variety of possible play outcomes? I think it sounds like a pretty hard thing to accomplish in 40 seconds, over and over.Rob Fnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-86900390131571105502012-01-16T15:07:35.171-05:002012-01-16T15:07:35.171-05:00Yes, you can expect players to do exactly that. Th...Yes, you can expect players to do exactly that. There are prior examples of players doing it. I don't expect players to consciously be aware of situations like this in the heat of battle, but I do expect the coaches in the press box to be aware, and to relay it to the field.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.com