Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: ESPN Interview

I tivoed the program, transferred it to my compute...

2009-11-29T17:11:28.941-05:00

I tivoed the program, transferred it to my computer, edited it down to just the segment with Brian in it, and uploaded it to youtube. The video can be found here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWz2EGgql8M

The video is just Berman's introduction and the produced segment. I also have a version that includes the discussion that takes place afterwards, that I can upload if anyone is

The fake punt in that Harvard-Yale game seems a lo...

2009-11-23T22:47:42.307-05:00

The fake punt in that Harvard-Yale game seems a lot harder to justify. For one thing, according to the article I read the Yale punter is considered the best in the Ivy League and was averaging something like 50 yards over his last [some amount of punts that's not nearly enough to draw a conclusion from]. Also, Yale was only up by 3.

There's always an argument to be made.

Thanks, cbm.

2009-11-23T21:53:15.096-05:00

Thanks, cbm.

Brian you were great on espn. I wished they had s...

2009-11-23T21:44:59.676-05:00

Brian you were great on espn. I wished they had shown more

"Is it just because I notice more now, or do teams...

2009-11-23T18:20:20.113-05:00

"Is it just because I notice more now, or do teams really seem to be going for it more often these days?"

I'm wondering the same thing. Some color commentator criticized a football team for having a return man instead of rushing the punter with 11 players, because there were only 7 seconds left to go in the half so who cares if they nail a 65 yard punt and down it at the

"Finally, who is this other James fellow?" Just a...

2009-11-23T14:30:33.631-05:00

"Finally, who is this other James fellow?"

Just a bandwagon fan of this site. No confusion intended--my display name has been changed.

Haha, that's when they were really trying to sell ...

2009-11-23T14:07:05.833-05:00

Haha, that's when they were really trying to sell you as a rocket scientist, since strolling around town in a sports jacket is what they do apparently. At least they didn't have you hunched over your computer updating your blog. It could have been worse.

Tarr-I definitely noticed. After each game I run m...

2009-11-23T13:23:07.275-05:00

Tarr-I definitely noticed. After each game I run my script to get the play-by-play. Along the way it calculates the 'what-if' WPA for going for every 4th down. I sort all the 4th down plays, and that Steelers punt came up as the most obvious mistake. It looks like it cost about .11 WP.

Is it just because I notice more now, or do teams really seem to be going for it more often

Jeff, I don't know if Zorn can be blamed for not a...

2009-11-23T13:04:15.485-05:00

Jeff, I don't know if Zorn can be blamed for not attempting a TD with 15 seconds left in the half. I would imagine if he lost play calling duties it wasn't his choice whether to go for it there or not.

Anon, I don't think it's fair to say Dungy was overrated. Tampa Bay, with all of Dungy's players and system, won the Superbowl the year after he left. It was Gruden

I also missed the interview - vagaries of parentho...

2009-11-23T13:03:38.379-05:00

I also missed the interview - vagaries of parenthood and all. I couldn't get to the TV until 15 minutes to gametime, and all I got was some blather about cover corners.

Has anyone noticed that NOBODY in the mainstream media is noting that Mike Tomlin lost the Pittsburgh/KC game by NOT going for it on 4th down from midfield, both at the end of regulation and in overtime?

I missed the interview, is it online anywhere?

2009-11-23T09:51:09.224-05:00

I missed the interview, is it online anywhere?

"I loved Costas' point about how Colts fans, given...

2009-11-22T21:54:49.124-05:00

"I loved Costas' point about how Colts fans, given a choice, would almost unanimously vote for a punt. It really does seem like, on some subconscious level, people know what the right decision is."

Theres been all sorts of psychological experiments that have proved that people instinctually pick the "conservative" option even if that is irrational.

For a second there I had a glimmer of hope that on...

2009-11-22T21:00:01.754-05:00

For a second there I had a glimmer of hope that one of the NBC guys would admit they were wrong--not necessarily wrong to say that Belichick should've punted, but wrong to assume the issue wasn't even debatable. Alas, they did not. Has anyone this week admitted they were wrong?

I loved Costas' point about how Colts fans, given a choice, would almost unanimously vote for a

I'm guessing consistency and accuracy really isnt ...

2009-11-22T20:54:35.874-05:00

I'm guessing consistency and accuracy really isnt high on the list of what it takes to be a sports commentator/analyst for nfl football.

Dungy last week: "You have to play the percentage...

2009-11-22T20:12:28.665-05:00

Dungy last week:

"You have to play the percentages"

Dungy this week:

"The percentages are baloney"

The least he could have done would have been to explain what exactly he thought "the percentages" were.

Frankly, I think Dungy might be the most overrated coach in history.

His team is now 10-0

Any links to the segment? I missed it this morning...

2009-11-22T20:07:46.532-05:00

Any links to the segment? I missed it this morning.

Al Michaels just said "Even rocket scientists have...

2009-11-22T20:05:59.775-05:00

Al Michaels just said "Even rocket scientists have debated this..."

Dan Patrick:

"The percentages don't factor in Peyton Manning getting the ball in the end"

IDIOT!!!!!!!!

Quote of the segment: (I actually like Jackson a l...

2009-11-22T16:33:50.898-05:00

Quote of the segment: (I actually like Jackson a lot)

"The game of football isn't a computer"

Those poor guys had no clue what that piece was about.

Absolutely. That's why I thought it was hilarious ...

2009-11-22T16:31:07.428-05:00

Absolutely. That's why I thought it was hilarious that such a simple concept was dismissed out of, what seemed to me, pure hubris and voluntary negligence on the part of Berman, Ditka, Johnson and Jackson. Many people, especially successful ones, dismiss things simply because they don't understand it. Garber did a phenomenal job of breaking it down though. Conditional probability is not a

Yep, and I have a 50/50 shot at winning the lotter...

2009-11-22T16:17:39.840-05:00

Yep, and I have a 50/50 shot at winning the lottery and cleaning our vegas this week.

If we took his comments and applied it to the game the colts had a 50/50 shot at winning regardless if the pats punted or went for it. Therefore, this argument should never had taken place.

"I liked the line from Billick--"If someone could ...

2009-11-22T15:19:28.008-05:00

"I liked the line from Billick--"If someone could explain this to me, it would be really useful." That's kind of my thrust. You don't need fancy equations or calculus to get it. You just need to know how often teams win in certain situations, and how likely you are to get to those situations. It's something anyone can understand"

You think that Billick

OT Jim Zorn is no longer my hero. Can you look...

2009-11-22T14:45:31.013-05:00

OT

Jim Zorn is no longer my hero.

Can you look at the decision to kick and not try one more play with 15 seconds left in the first half?

A kick was probably worth 2.7 points (90% * 3 points).

A sack or int would have netted them -2.7 points. A TD would have netted 4.3. An incomplete would have been a push.

I think a TD is at least twice

The tide is definitely turning on this issue. Wha...

2009-11-22T14:40:21.984-05:00

The tide is definitely turning on this issue.

What I thought about during the entire interview is what would happen if you had the same interview 60 years ago and the subject wasn't fourth downs, the subject was forward passes...

Believe it or not, the forward pass was once a very controversial subject. Coaches were so conservative that it was generally accepted that

Missed the segment. Anyway we could get a summary?...

2009-11-22T12:42:45.139-05:00

Missed the segment. Anyway we could get a summary?

Thanks. They used about 1% of the interview, which...

2009-11-22T12:35:00.726-05:00

Thanks. They used about 1% of the interview, which is the nature of tv. By the way, I am not a rocket scientist or even an aerospace engineer. That was my major in college, and it's useful in my line of work, but I'd never seriously refer to myself that way. I suppose it enhances my authority on math, but I'm not a mathematician or statistician. I'm a naval tactics consultant in