those "stats" are complete bs! do they say if half...

2010-05-24T11:45:32.954-04:00

those "stats" are complete bs! do they say if half the other teams players were hurt before that play and subs were in? or how bad the oppositiuons defense and yours was great? or etc, etc.? how about you give me one time when a team up 6 points with about 2 minutes left in game which should have been less as you should have forced the colts to use up their remaining timeouts by not

those "stats" are complete bs! do they say if half...

2010-05-24T11:44:29.460-04:00

Your stats are completely irrelevant. Every team l...

2010-05-24T11:35:05.667-04:00

Your stats are completely irrelevant. Every team lines up facing a different situation.

The truth of the matter is that play-calls are jud...

2010-02-22T12:52:16.499-05:00

The truth of the matter is that play-calls are judged by their outcome. If Belichick's decision ended in a first down, it would have been the correct decision. But the Pats did not make the first down. The decision was a bad one. If you ask any coach how they know if they made a good play-call or not, their response will, most likely, be "if it works."

Furthermore,

I love the Colts but this really surprised me. ...

2009-12-28T16:36:38.943-05:00

I love the Colts but this really surprised me.

Rick

I realize i'm pretty late on this...but where ever...

2009-12-08T13:52:01.987-05:00

I realize i'm pretty late on this...but where everyone (including this site) is screwing up is giving the pats a 60% chance of picking up that 4th & 2. that's the chance of picking up a normal 4th & 2 where it's not the worse thing if the other team doesn't stop them because they're still concerned with the deep threat. there was no deep threat on that play and was

Morons, who don't know how to calculate risk.. And...

2009-11-22T23:48:21.868-05:00

Morons, who don't know how to calculate risk.. And there's really no point in trying, with morons like you guys..

spoonfulofpeter, I'm pretty sure Brian's numbers ...

2009-11-22T22:11:38.325-05:00

spoonfulofpeter,

I'm pretty sure Brian's numbers include data from only the first and third quarters. That ensures the results aren't skewed by prevent defenses or desperation come-from-behind situations.

Also, as Tony Dungy mentioned on SNF, 60% is a lea...

2009-11-22T20:13:52.691-05:00

Also, as Tony Dungy mentioned on SNF, 60% is a league wide average of 4th and 2 situations. That includes a large number of situations where teams are down multiple scores and facing prevent defenses. This skews your entire calculation as their conversion rate has to be way less than 60%. The Colts were not playing prevent. They were playing do or die.

I didn't see a comment discussing how Manning and ...

2009-11-20T19:23:50.423-05:00

I didn't see a comment discussing how Manning and the Colts do in the final two minutes, when they are tied or behind. Surely there's a stat for that floating around somewhere?

Does anyone consider that the decision was a win-w...

2009-11-20T16:17:56.554-05:00

Does anyone consider that the decision was a win-win for Bill (despite what the media coverage says)?

A) Pats make 4th down, essentially the game is won.

B) Pats fail to make 4th down, defense holds Colts offense ... Pats win.

C) Pats fail to make 4th down, defense allows Colts to score quickly. Pats offense roars back with game-winning drive of its own.

Applying .60 conversion factor is way off. NFL 4t...

2009-11-20T12:21:02.953-05:00

Applying .60 conversion factor is way off. NFL 4th down conversion in 2009 (3 yards or less) is .449. The Pats are 5 for 11 this year or .455 which is only average. When the conversion attempt failed did anyone actually think the Colts wouldn't score?

Even conservatively, if the Colts/Manning had a 70% chance to score (if 4th down conversion failed), and based on NFL 4th down

Here's why Belichek's choice was too risky... NE ...

2009-11-19T14:11:32.741-05:00

Here's why Belichek's choice was too risky...

NE has ~70 yards to go, same distance to endzone for IND if NE decides to punt.

Therefore, we can assume NE's WP is at least 70% BEFORE the decision, but not much more because they're only up by 6 with 2 mins. to go.

AFTER A PUNT, NE's WP stays about the same at 70% (assumes 40 yds net to IND 30)

I think this is not nearly as complicated as peopl...

2009-11-18T22:16:30.325-05:00

I think this is not nearly as complicated as people are making it. Belichick normally punts on 4th down. He would have punted here but he did not think Manning could be stopped by his D. He had to quickly decide if he wanted Tom Brady deciding the game or his D. Since Manning was the other QB he probably looked at a punt as giving him a 30% chance to win and going for it is 50/50 at worse.

Probabilities are very interesting to consider (th...

2009-11-18T19:16:37.307-05:00

Probabilities are very interesting to consider (this is the Tony LaRussa format of coaching), but I think Belichick did the RIGHT thing, considering his offensive personnel vs. his defensive personnel, and how deadly Peyton Manning is in a must-win situation. The problem was the play execution on 4th and 2. Why have a guy go to exactly 2 yards to attempt the catch (which he made, but juggled

I agree that going for it on 4-2, even in that pos...

2009-11-18T18:05:17.604-05:00

I agree that going for it on 4-2, even in that position, is the true mathematical favorite. However, in practice I only agree with the decision if the defense is told to allow a touchdown if/when the Colts are very close... tackling the runner at the 1 with 1:20 left (and no timeouts) ultimately is what cost the Pats the game. With a minute and only needing a field goal Brady is successful most

Please stop the madness. Enough of the defense of...

2009-11-18T17:03:30.669-05:00

Please stop the madness. Enough of the defense of the mad scientist. There's no way to defend the call; it lost the game for the Patriots. The Pats website says it all - 2009 3rd down conversions 56/123 (45%); 4th down conversions 5/11 (45%), so converting (in 2009) is worse than a coin flip. If Belichick is so worried about giving the ball to Manning in this game, why would he decide,

Going for it in that situation is too risky becaus...

2009-11-18T13:48:41.840-05:00

Going for it in that situation is too risky because if you fail:

1) The game clock becomes a non-factor.
2) The offensive play book is wide open.

All these statistics are great but the fact is Indy had only scored on 4/13 possesions in the game and 2/5 in the second half. So what are the real odds of them scoring again with only 2 minutes left and 1 TO?

He

He (and the team and his other coaches) only had 2...

2009-11-18T13:44:06.742-05:00

He (and the team and his other coaches) only had 25 seconds to not only decide YES or NO but to a play... against arguably the BEST team in the NFL. They didn't have 24 hours and computers and replays and historical games to look back on... or a bunch of 'Monday Morning Quarterbacks' or 'Yahoos'. GREAT CALL ! Awesome Call. Gave his Offense AND his Defense a chance. Colts had

Anony 1. "Yes a 70%WP means that you are likely to...

2009-11-18T11:43:21.299-05:00

Anony 1.
"Yes a 70%WP means that you are likely to win but describing a 70% probability as "almost certain to still be the most likely winner" is incorrect".

You're miss reading me.I'm saying if you punt in the vaste majority of those punts you come out of it with a higher WP than Indy.I never said anything remotely resembling "a 70% chance

I've read through most of the arguments and finall...

2009-11-18T10:06:11.282-05:00

I've read through most of the arguments and finally the last anonymous poster is the only one here who seems to get it. It a risk-reward type call and I think the call was way too risky in this situation.

As a coach myself, I like the idea of creating the most opportunities for my team to win. By punting you force the opposing team to beat you and they have zero room for error.

"Given that he only gets to play this play once,sh...

2009-11-18T06:10:45.038-05:00

"Given that he only gets to play this play once,shouldn't he trade off part of his longterm win probability (which he only gets if he continually goes for it on 4th down)"

Another misperception....

A casino invites you to be a blackjack dealer and keep the profits. Or you can sit on the regular side play like a regular gambler.

Play 10,000 hands from

With all due respect, I think your post illustrate...

2009-11-18T06:06:30.073-05:00

With all due respect, I think your post illustrates part of the disconnect between the math people on this site and the conventional wisdom.

The conventional wisdom relies heavily on rounding.

Punt = 70% Win Prob (WP) = probable win

Go for it and make it = 99% WP = probable win

Go for it and miss = 43% WP = probable loss

Go for it and make

Isn't there something missing here. BB goes for i...

2009-11-18T05:13:53.017-05:00

Isn't there something missing here.

BB goes for it.Six times out of ten he comes out the other side of the 2 minute warning as the most likely game winner.(WP around 100%).But 4 times he comes out as the most likely loser because Indy stop them.

If he punts,he's almost certain to still be the most likely winner after the punt,although his win probability will be

Yeah, I agree with all of that, and I agree that f...

2009-11-18T04:13:38.238-05:00

Yeah, I agree with all of that, and I agree that four-down football will catch on. I'll go as far as to predict that in the near future we'll look back on this 4th-and-2 play as the best thing to ever happen to four-down football, because it got people to start talking and, in some cases, thinking. The great irony is that it's all because they didn't get the first down (I

Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: Belichick's 4th Down Decision vs the Colts

those "stats" are complete bs! do they say if half...

those "stats" are complete bs! do they say if half...

Your stats are completely irrelevant. Every team l...

The truth of the matter is that play-calls are jud...

I love the Colts but this really surprised me. ...

I realize i'm pretty late on this...but where ever...

Morons, who don't know how to calculate risk.. And...

spoonfulofpeter, I'm pretty sure Brian's numbers ...

Also, as Tony Dungy mentioned on SNF, 60% is a lea...

I didn't see a comment discussing how Manning and ...

Does anyone consider that the decision was a win-w...

Applying .60 conversion factor is way off. NFL 4t...

Here's why Belichek's choice was too risky... NE ...

I think this is not nearly as complicated as peopl...

Probabilities are very interesting to consider (th...

I agree that going for it on 4-2, even in that pos...

Please stop the madness. Enough of the defense of...

Going for it in that situation is too risky becaus...

He (and the team and his other coaches) only had 2...

Anony 1. "Yes a 70%WP means that you are likely to...

I've read through most of the arguments and finall...

"Given that he only gets to play this play once,sh...

With all due respect, I think your post illustrate...

Isn't there something missing here. BB goes for i...

Yeah, I agree with all of that, and I agree that f...