tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post4886681859697915387..comments2010-11-08T12:50:38.657-05:00Brian Burkenoreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-72761108769411210772010-11-08T12:50:38.657-05:002010-11-08T12:50:38.657-05:00@Joe - I think the post you were replying to was in reference to the fact that these are not truly random events. With enough computer power and precise measurement, these "random" events such as whether the football will bounce for a touchback or stop dead on the 1-yard line would theoretically be perfectly predictable. It's just that our ability to predict with such precision falls so astonishingly short, that for all intents and purposes, the process is equivalent to being truly random.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-21328154550568271432010-08-08T02:38:42.328-04:002010-08-08T02:38:42.328-04:00@Anon - I'm not seeing what you don't get about randomness in the context of the game. Essentially, it boils down to "shit happens". The ball bounces into the endzone for a touchback, or it stops on the 1. The tipped pass that lands in your hands or the opponent's. The call that could've gone the other way (officiating judgement calls are beyond your control). The dropped pass (similar to the above example that hitters cannot control WHEN they hit, just how often they do so). The botched snap or hand off. These things happen. That's the nature of luck, or randomness. You hope you get the bounces, cause if you don't... well, we've all seen teams dominate every facet of the game and still lose.Joehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12892367633984292438noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-30183613143391923262009-10-29T18:05:36.593-04:002009-10-29T18:05:36.593-04:00As a layperson, I've never been fully comfortable with how the term "randomness" is used in these contexts. There seem to be two distinct situations in which it is used--two "referents" of the term. One is where there is pure physical randomness (a concept I cannot get my head around). The other is where there is such complexity that we aren't able to predict an outcome, though theoretically we could. The distinction is not relevant from a practical or pragmatic perspective, or is it? With respect to predicting football game outcomes, I probably put more stats than most people into the "random" bin and chaulk them up as "noise" for predictive purposes. And step way, way back to a macro-level, not-fully-quantitative "analysis". I'm psyched to have come across your site so I can see what sounds like an alternative approach with predictive power.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-90118057126801207152009-09-09T12:18:09.961-04:002009-09-09T12:18:09.961-04:00you have not answered my question. I want to know what the o/u data tells me in predicting a NFL football winner :ie, Pittsburg open 5 1/2 today 6 o/u 35 Tennesee. what does the o/u number tell me?Durwood Brundagehttp://aol.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-78237796505298766742009-04-01T22:01:00.000-04:002009-04-01T22:01:00.000-04:00haha awsomejhc448http://openid.aol.com/jhc448noreply@blogger.com