tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post5058801312235337165..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week ThreeUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-29232149956797733362011-09-26T14:37:04.122-04:002011-09-26T14:37:04.122-04:00I could have sworn I posted a comment here.I could have sworn I posted a comment here.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-73560138135532068552011-09-25T00:46:56.134-04:002011-09-25T00:46:56.134-04:00So, I just saw Moneyball. My prediction: someone i...So, I just saw Moneyball. My prediction: someone is going to start paying a lot of attention to what you guys are doing here. I don't know if any coaches or owners have contacted you, but after seeing the movie and seeing what you guys are doing, I literally had a revelation and realized that the way I looked at statistics in football was completely backwards. Of course the denominator is just as important as the numerator, and yet years of conditioning by commentators has blinded me to that fact. <br /><br />Could you, for example, put together a roster of the most undervalued/underrated players in football? I'd love to see an analysis like that, if you've got the time.Jaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-13700816292731847092011-09-24T16:37:41.032-04:002011-09-24T16:37:41.032-04:00Here are some interesting #s on Cutler. His deep% ...Here are some interesting #s on <a href="http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerpage.php?playerid=6-J.Cutler&pos=QB&season=reg" rel="nofollow">Cutler</a>. His deep% has been rock solid steady through his career on both DEN and CHI. I was expecting to see a dramatic increase in his sack rate when he went to CHI. But that's not the real story. He's been a sack victim his entire career, except for his one breakout year in '08.<br /><br />yr team deep% sack%<br />2006 DEN 22.6 8.7<br />2007 DEN 19.1 5.5<br />2008 DEN 21.9 1.8<br />2009 CHI 21.4 6.0<br />2010 CHI 21.8 10.6Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-15503015399548297572011-09-24T15:02:32.197-04:002011-09-24T15:02:32.197-04:00@James: Ack. Here we are: "it might make his ...@James: Ack. Here we are: "it might make his quarterbacks more vulnerable to the pass rush."<br /><br />@Anon: I don't deny it: that COULD be happening. Given what information we have, though -- i.e. that almost EVERY quarterback is attempting deeper passes than Cutler -- it's UNLIKELY that that's what's happening.Carson Cistullihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07899471165689117765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-90626945493008843292011-09-24T14:44:49.244-04:002011-09-24T14:44:49.244-04:00• Looking at the numbers, however, we find that on...• Looking at the numbers, however, we find that only 21.8% of Cutler's pass attempts (sacks excluded) last season were of 15 yards or greater -- tying him for 15th among qualifiers<br /><br />But this just looks at where he ended up throwing the ball. His first or second looks could still be downfield, while he ends up checking down to Forte or an underneath receiver if they can't get open.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-17480381135986327612011-09-24T14:19:47.553-04:002011-09-24T14:19:47.553-04:00"is that, because Mike Martz's offense ha..."is that, because Mike Martz's offense has a number of deep patterns, it might"<br /><br />It might what?Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.com