Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: Should the Patriots Have Let the Colts Score?

One problem with allowing the Colts to score is th...

2009-11-19T22:34:57.210-05:00

One problem with allowing the Colts to score is that you can't be sure they'll do it right away. Imagine the Patriots defense not trying to tackle and the Colts offense not trying to score ... it wouldn't necessarily have turned out too differently.

Re: calculating the exact WP after TD. I think th...

2009-11-18T16:52:57.074-05:00

Re: calculating the exact WP after TD. I think there's a way to do it based on the formula for expected probability of getting a field goal with x amount of time left in the game. I think it involves calculus (ugh!).

Did you factor in the 98-99% for the extra point? ...

2009-11-18T16:47:42.955-05:00

Did you factor in the 98-99% for the extra point? It's not much, but with the WP so close, it slightly increases the potential benefit to the Patriots (a missed XP causes the Colts touchdown to tie the game rather than give them the lead).

"You missed a pretty important part in determining...

2009-11-18T02:26:46.089-05:00

"You missed a pretty important part in determining the value of playing straight up defense. Unless the Colts score on the last play of the game, you are going to get the ball back. Sometimes it might be only a few seconds, but other times you will have 45+ seconds left."

Very good point....

I missed this too. The sentence below assumes that if you score the

Brian, Another poster mentioned it already, but.....

2009-11-18T00:41:54.755-05:00

Brian,

Another poster mentioned it already, but...

You missed a pretty important part in determining the value of playing straight up defense. Unless the Colts score on the last play of the game, you are going to get the ball back. Sometimes it might be only a few seconds, but other times you will have 45+ seconds left.

Another minor thing that I am not sure is being ta...

2009-11-17T19:46:00.010-05:00

Another minor thing that I am not sure is being taken into consideration is the chances of the Colts missing the extra point on both the "matador" and "non matador" Colt touchdown scenarios.
vr, Xei

Brian, I love your articles. On a related item to ...

2009-11-17T17:26:38.934-05:00

Brian, I love your articles. On a related item to this, could you please analyze the end of Superbowl 32 between the Packers and Broncos? With the game tied with 1:47 to go, the Broncos had 2nd and goal on the 1 yd line. Packers had 2 timeouts.

Holmgren instructed his team to let Denver score so the Packers could get the ball back. Some criticized this decision afterwards. But

I rarely like the idea of letting a team score unl...

2009-11-17T14:56:50.127-05:00

I rarely like the idea of letting a team score unless that team is in a situation in which they can win with a field goal. However, I do think the probabilities should influence defensive play-calling. The Patriots may have been better served to play aggressively for the first few plays, sending blitzers and leaving man coverage deep. If they can get a sack, or perhaps stop a run short, they will

Brian, Great posts. And thank goodness for Belich...

2009-11-17T14:19:55.034-05:00

Brian,

Great posts. And thank goodness for Belichick. All this talk of 'go for it on 4th down' is finally starting to get somewhere and I hope that Bill would make that same call again.

One question that has been asked in the comments and would be interesting to know. Would it have made sense for Brady to run back and take a safety, or would the net position be the

It is not ridiculous. The Colts did the exact sam...

2009-11-17T12:07:39.855-05:00

It is not ridiculous. The Colts did the exact same thing in a playoff games agains the Chiefs a few years back. It was a total shootout, and the Colts let the Chiefs score so that they could get the ball back in the final minutes of the game. In that circumstance, neither defense could stop either team.

And if the Pats lets the Colts score, the Pats only need a field goal, not a

I am a fan of using probability to analyze situati...

2009-11-17T11:58:38.802-05:00

I am a fan of using probability to analyze situations like this.

However, I think in some situations, this being one of them, you can begin to trend toward some pretty absurd conclusions.

To intentionally give up a lead there would have to be an overwhelming reason.

I agree with the 4th down call... I don't mind the MJD kneeldown... however I think this

Brian - Congrats on your well-deserved exposure ov...

2009-11-17T10:56:37.484-05:00

Brian - Congrats on your well-deserved exposure over the last two days.

Could you provide a little more detail on the stats that lead you to write that the expected net of a punt in that situation?

You have the expected net of the punt at 38 yards. Is that an indoor/outdoor figure? If so, how would it change for punting indoors?

Would you adjust at all for the

Maybe the Patriots could have started out playing ...

2009-11-17T10:14:39.184-05:00

Maybe the Patriots could have started out playing real defense, but as soon as Addai broke up the middle it was a terrible, terrible decision to stop him at the 1-yard line...and then subsequently stop him on the next rushing attempt.

There are a few other factors that push this decision towards the 'matador' school of thought at that point (besides both the Patriots and

Do you let them score from the 14? I guess not. Th...

2009-11-17T10:07:29.239-05:00

Do you let them score from the 14? I guess not. That maybe the smart move WP-wise, but you should let them earn the win. But they should've let Addai walk in instead of tackling him at the NE 1. At this point it makes no sense to think you can keep the Colts out of the endzone with 4 tries. It's not that Addai would've done a MJD kneel. He was running in. Let him go and try to get a

How about the stop of Addai at the goal line? I d...

2009-11-17T09:58:27.225-05:00

How about the stop of Addai at the goal line? I don't think I would have let them score from the 14 but once they got to the goal line, it seems like they should have let Addai score. I think that would have given them 30-40 seconds to score a field goal.

Brian - another key variable should be how much ti...

2009-11-17T08:37:40.465-05:00

Brian - another key variable should be how much time is left when the Colts score. If the Patriots let them score, it's about 1:10. But even if the Patriots try to stop the Colts, the Colts might have still scored with :45 or 1:00 left, which would allow the Patriots some time for a response. This factor would greatly increase the WP of playing straight defense.