Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: Last Thoughts on the 4th and 2

"but BB isn't playing a game where he can play 100...

2009-11-28T20:18:13.907-05:00

"but BB isn't playing a game where he can play 100's of times to churn over his advantage.He's much more in a Deal or No Deal situation where he's down to his last two boxes (one containing an Indy stop and the other with a NWE 1st down) and the banker's offered him the punt."

I think you are completely missing the point.

The banker's

"Option A, which has won 70/100 times. Option B, w...

2009-11-28T05:39:32.796-05:00

"Option A, which has won 70/100 times.
Option B, which has won 79/100 times.

Which one would you choose?"

but BB isn't playing a game where he can play 100's of times to churn over his advantage.He's much more in a Deal or No Deal situation where he's down to his last two boxes (one containing an Indy stop and the other with a NWE 1st down) and

Oh, I forgot about my asterisk. I was going to sa...

2009-11-26T22:37:27.094-05:00

Oh, I forgot about my asterisk. I was going to say, as a tangent, that I really hate using colloquial phrases in serious discussion, but I really have no idea what the alternative to "going for it" is here. "Attempting to convert" just sounds a little ponderous.

Jim - you're absolutely right. At the time, I was...

2009-11-26T22:35:41.965-05:00

Jim - you're absolutely right. At the time, I was hoping he would mix things up with a third down run, and then treat it as four-down territory barring a loss of yardage - and I bet I was far from the only one.

In fact, I think you can actually make the same case regarding the infamous 3rd-and-4 in the '06 AFCCG. They had basically abandoned the run since midway through the

I haven't seen this mentioned above, though I may ...

2009-11-26T21:55:42.650-05:00

I haven't seen this mentioned above, though I may have missed it, since it is pretty plain...

Whatever one thinks of the fourth-down call, one mistake Belichick unquestionably made -- since he admitted it later -- was not realizing on third down that he could put the game in his pocket by getting two yards in two plays.

If he was going to go for it on 4th, he

What I'm about to say is going to sound horribly e...

2009-11-26T14:25:40.774-05:00

What I'm about to say is going to sound horribly elitist and condescending...I don't really mean it that way. Its an important point to make though and if it offends anybody, well I'm sorry.

I've talked to a bunch of people about this since it happened. Nearly everybody that has an advanced degree in anything math related (economics, biology, engineering, etc.) agrees

Right. That's the point. The numbers are based on ...

2009-11-26T12:21:36.532-05:00

Right. That's the point. The numbers are based on plays that matter. They are not "trash" plays like Dungy says. As far as I know, 2 yards is about 6 feet no matter what quarter you're in.

"Now, to correct some bad info from Dungy and Dan ...

2009-11-26T10:51:41.260-05:00

"Now, to correct some bad info from Dungy and Dan Patrick: The 4th down conversion rates I used are based on data from 1st and 3rd quarters when the score is within 10 pts. That way 'desperation' and 'prevent' plays are excluded."

This was not a first or third quarter decision.

lol....I should have said co-workers. Ultimately ...

2009-11-25T21:17:29.573-05:00

lol....I should have said co-workers. Ultimately who really gives a shit about their co-workers job status more than their own.

Anonymous that said he relied on "experience, knowledge and common sense" and that Belichick made a horrible decision there....I'm curious what you think the probabilities were...

Did any of you guys see that Yale went for 4th and

Do ex-spouses count?

2009-11-25T20:47:15.897-05:00

Do ex-spouses count?

You're leaving out a key detail.... With Option A...

2009-11-25T20:39:11.441-05:00

You're leaving out a key detail....

With Option A, 30% of the time your spouse gets yelled at but you don't.

With Option B, 21% of the time you get yelled at but your spouse doesn't.

Is it really "for richer or for poorer"?

Is it really teamwork before selfishness?

"I've been hearing constantly here and other place...

2009-11-25T20:30:00.170-05:00

"I've been hearing constantly here and other places (Zeus and 4th Down Doctrine followers) that coaches are just worried about job security and that they forego making decisions to improve their chances of winning "to play it safe" and "keep their job". There is little to support this -WP coaching narrative besides just making the claim. "

You've

Forget about football and 4th downs for a second. ...

2009-11-25T20:26:01.332-05:00

Forget about football and 4th downs for a second. Let's just play a game called "WinOrLose." In WinOrLose, I give you 2 options and tell you the historic chances that each option will win the game based on the last several hundred times it was played. You chose your option, and then we roll the dice and see if you win.

Ok. Ready? Here goes.

Option A, which has

"He had a so-so season after that injury I believe...

2009-11-25T20:21:12.182-05:00

"He had a so-so season after that injury I believe, not sure, I didn't check. Vanderjagt is still the most accurate FG kicker in NFL history. I'm really not sure what your point is. "

He wasn't the most accurate FG kicker in NFL history that season. That was my point. Go to Wikipedia and look up the topic "regression to the mean". I think you will

Potter, "If I'm lucky it's a 100% dot,but if I'm ...

2009-11-25T20:15:04.260-05:00

Potter,

"If I'm lucky it's a 100% dot,but if I'm unlucky it's a 47% one.

On the punt he's almost certain to get a 70% one and overall he prefers that to the risk of being unlucky and pulling a 47% dot."

Whether you realize it or not what you are doing is utility analysis. Its very popular in the financial world. With good reason. I

This is an interesting story on the 4th down theor...

2009-11-25T20:00:48.211-05:00

This is an interesting story on the 4th down theory. Admittedly, this is a high school team. But it's a variation on a theme, I suppose.

http://highschool.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=892888

correction: In the 1st sentence above, I meant to...

2009-11-25T17:00:17.883-05:00

correction:

In the 1st sentence above, I meant to say the Pats HAD the 4th best pass defense before the Indy game, not HAS.

Addendum. Also, I'm still waiting for someone to ...

2009-11-25T16:48:44.969-05:00

Addendum.

Also, I'm still waiting for someone to address the fact that the Pats has the 4th best pass defense in the NFL and how that fact would affect the math and WP equation.

Peyton's previous 8 games were played against teams with horrible pass defenses. Check it out. The best he played against was 16th or 17th.

Belichick signed Bodden, McGowan,

Brian Burke said... "There was also no data for ...

2009-11-25T16:47:19.744-05:00

Brian Burke said...

"There was also no data for a punt from the Pats' 28 against the Colts.

So I guess we should just use a Magic 8-Ball to decide? Ouija Board? Why is punting the automatic good idea?"

If there are no good and applicable data to support a decision, then the decision maker will rely on experience, knowledge and common sense instead

Jeff Clarke, "But what about the luck that you nee...

2009-11-25T16:02:37.342-05:00

Jeff Clarke,
"But what about the luck that you need in order to win if you punt?"

OK here's why you need to be lucky.

Going for it gives you a 78% of winning the game....in the longrun.

So we persuade NWE and Indy to replay the 'go for it option' a couple of hundred times.We draw a graph axis ranging from a WP for NWE of zero at one end

BTW...I haven't done an exact analysis of the prob...

2009-11-25T01:38:01.160-05:00

BTW...I haven't done an exact analysis of the probabilities, but I'm pretty sure that Kubiak's decision not to try and get 10 more yards against a prevent defense with 8 seconds to go last night cost the Texans far more than even the most absurdly pessimistic probabilities say Belichick's decision cost them with 4th and 2.

He took a little bit of heat for it, but

OK...I admit I did the 60% number from memory. I ...

2009-11-25T01:30:21.205-05:00

OK...I admit I did the 60% number from memory. I stand corrected on it actually being 66%. My 35% estimate was also incorrect. It should be 23%.

I would tell you that if you are using kickers' personal averages and not league averages you are practically crying out for regression to the mean to slap you across the face. Remember Vanderjagt. He was the best kicker in the league

"There was NO data for 4th and 2 on the Pats 28 AG...

2009-11-24T22:37:42.744-05:00

"There was NO data for 4th and 2 on the Pats 28 AGAINST the Colts. NONE."

There was also no data for a punt from the Pats' 28 against the Colts.

So I guess we should just use a Magic 8-Ball to decide? Ouija Board? Why is punting the automatic good idea?

For the record, I think the 4th and 13 in the Supe...

2009-11-24T22:35:16.056-05:00

For the record, I think the 4th and 13 in the Super Bowl vs. the Giants was a bad decision. I would have gone for it up to about 4th and 6 there, which most people would still say is crazy.

From the 31, a 48-yd FG is good about 66% of the time over the past 9 seasons.

I think in the end, the bigger picture value of th...

2009-11-24T21:29:10.403-05:00

I think in the end, the bigger picture value of this whole thing is that he didn't just fall back on "what does everyone normally do" or "what is best for my reputation". Instead, he went with what he thought would give his team the best chance of winning the game. Clearly it can be debated whether it truly was the best call from a probability standpoint, but all