Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: Second-Guessing Coughlin and Reid

Ok. I can't ignore 3 requests! FG% from the 34 (l...

2009-11-21T20:27:12.623-05:00

Ok. I can't ignore 3 requests!

FG% from the 34 (line of scrimmage): 59%
WP missed FG: 0.07
WP made FG: 0.17
WP FG att = .59*.17 + (1-.59)*.07 = 0.13

Conv % 4th and 11: 30%
WP success: 0.21
WP fail: 0.08
WP Conv att = 0.30*0.21 + (1-.30)*.08 = 0.12

WP FG att = 0.13
WP Conv att = 0.12

I will third the request to see the math on the An...

2009-11-20T18:29:07.903-05:00

I will third the request to see the math on the Andy Reid FG attempt.

"I agree with Reid's decision to go for the FG, ev...

2009-11-19T14:47:07.538-05:00

"I agree with Reid's decision to go for the FG, even though it was a long kick, because the chances of success for the kick are much higher than making a first down with 4 and 11. If he doesn't make the first down, the game is over."

How is the game over if they fail to make the first down? If they fail, the result is that Dallas gets the ball back between the 23 and

Hi all...I just discovered this site after a bit o...

2009-11-16T00:45:26.813-05:00

Hi all...I just discovered this site after a bit of googling following a debate with some of my friends on the Reid decision. As a long-time baseball sabrmetrician I'm very familiar with the concepts expressed here, but I'd be very grateful if the author could actually post the math he's using to get to his conclusion. I can believe it, but I'd like to actually see the numbers

Very interesting discussion; I will not quibble on...

2009-11-14T00:26:33.745-05:00

Very interesting discussion; I will not quibble on the math. The major point is to transition from the general, e.g., the WP is 0.75, to the specific, the head coach to decide what play do I call in this situation? I agree with Reid's decision to go for the field goal, even though it was a long kick, because the chances of success for the kick are much higher than making a first down with 4

I am sure teams do not "settle for a FG" all the t...

2009-11-13T06:55:28.574-05:00

I am sure teams do not "settle for a FG" all the time the option for a win remains open

Argue the stats as you will but a team down six knows it has to score a TD to win whereas a team down 3 has the comfort zone of a tying FG

But think positively to try to avoid OT; on the other side make them drive from the 2 rather than the 20 or 25

Joe G, We talked a lot about this in the thread ...

2009-11-12T16:51:28.416-05:00

Joe G,

We talked a lot about this in the thread on Jim Zorn. Look there and you will see a lot of the details. The bottom line is that missing a 4th down conversion leaves them significantly farther away from FG range than they would be after a kickoff. The extra yards mean they have to drive almost as far for a FG as you have to drive for a TD. Also, remember the 18% for a TD is

Hmm.. that WP(up 6)= .82 and WP(up 3) = .79 seems ...

2009-11-12T11:19:15.459-05:00

Hmm.. that WP(up 6)= .82 and WP(up 3) = .79 seems too small of a gap. It's saying they (Cards) score a TD drive to win 18% of the time - that seems right. But there has to be at least another 20% of the time on top of the 18% where a FG ties the game - and assume that overtime is a 50/50 chance, that would add another 10% to the 79%.

IDK, I know the data must say differently but

P.S. I have just checked the play by play prior to...

2009-11-11T12:56:06.355-05:00

P.S. I have just checked the play by play prior to the botched FGA. Eight yards pass gained on 1st&10 with declined offside - see other article - a one yard gain and then no gain. Not exactly the biggest boost to the confidence of your Offense taking the 39yFGA option but a fairly safe distance irrespective of the kicker's (normal) effective range or KER

Just shows the effect

There are no replies to my comments about 4th Down...

2009-11-11T12:40:30.752-05:00

There are no replies to my comments about 4th Down options posted at the end of October but to be fair, being inside the seven is not as clear-cut as say 4th&4 from the 7 - in any case this applies to situations not near the end of a half

Near the end of the game and leading by 3, there is no point IMO going for the FG. Whatever the outcome the defenders still need a TD to win and

Regarding the Giants-Chargers game, it is fairly o...

2009-11-10T17:27:20.608-05:00

Regarding the Giants-Chargers game, it is fairly obvious that the Giants should have gone for it on all 3 4th downs, but last was the most obvious, even for a conservative coach like Coughlin.

Ignoring the statistics, I struggle to see how adding 3 points in that situation does anything good. If he was expecting the defense to stop a TD drive of 70-80 yards, he should have counted on

I checked and I think 0.85 is correct: .2+ (.76*....

2009-11-10T09:48:09.878-05:00

I checked and I think 0.85 is correct:

.2+ (.76*.82)+(.04*.79) = .85

You have a pass attempt by the Giants as 0.85 WP, ...

2009-11-10T08:42:02.674-05:00

You have a pass attempt by the Giants as 0.85 WP, but I believe that is incorrect ... I think the correct value is 0.93 WP

One other thing occurs to me. If the Chargers are...

2009-11-10T02:52:35.673-05:00

One other thing occurs to me. If the Chargers are pinned near their own end zone, the Giants could get a safety to win the game. This seems like a possibility if Rivers has to pass from the end zone. He might also have to get rid of the ball quicker, because of how risky a sack is. Or, they might try to run the ball out of there, burning more time on the clock.

It seems to me that the Giants kicking a field goa...

2009-11-10T02:45:48.820-05:00

It seems to me that the Giants kicking a field goal in that situation is an extremely poor decision that should have had more than a little influence on the results.

If the Giants fail to convert, the Chargers are pinned inside the 5. The Chargers probably go for the tie, which would mean a 50/50 overtime. They would have to make the field goal, if they miss, the Giants win. If the

Thank you for doing this. I saw the NYTimes artic...

2009-11-09T17:06:04.534-05:00

Thank you for doing this. I saw the NYTimes article this morning and had a feeling you would weigh in on this subject.

I have to admit I'm really surprised by the Eagles result. I thought Reid was making a big mistake there.

Can you show us the math? I know its difficult for some, but I think most of us love the math. Thats one of the main reasons were here.

Brian- did Reid make the correct decision in going...

2009-11-09T15:36:36.704-05:00

Brian- did Reid make the correct decision in going for the field goal in the first place? Obviously he made it, but how likely was that and what would you be saying now if it missed?

buzmeg- Although I think that may be true against most teams, I don't think that applies to the Chargers. Especially with Philip Rivers - I think he would go for the win. Remember, this is the same

The Giants would have been better off if they didn...

2009-11-09T13:28:50.105-05:00

The Giants would have been better off if they didn't make the FG and kept the lead at three. By going up by 6 points they forced SD into going for the TD, and we all know what happened. Had they been up by only three SD likely would have played the last drive differently by playing for field position, the tie, and overtime.

I'll point out that while the Coughlin decision to...

2009-11-09T12:16:26.296-05:00

I'll point out that while the Coughlin decision to run/pass may not have been that decisive, he faced two other 4th and 1 decisions in the game that were, I suspect, quite costly from a WP perspective.

I may have the specific yard markers wrong or other details since I am going from memory, but . . .

4th and 1 from the SD 28, first drive of the game, he went for the FG.