Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: The Value of 1st Down and 5 Situations

To come up to an answer to this question, I'd firs...

2009-11-16T14:00:52.886-05:00

To come up to an answer to this question, I'd first ask the question why do teams have 1st and 5 to being with? If we assume the answer an overwhelming majority of the time is a defensive offsides (as you do), then there are two reasons why the offense is in a 1st and 5 situation:

1) The "offsides" play on first down netted the offense 5 yards or less, and accepting the

If you assume a rationality to offsides (defenses ...

2009-11-15T04:19:37.088-05:00

If you assume a rationality to offsides (defenses which are better at stopping the run go offsides more because they use the timing to get the initial push [don't know if it's true probably an interesting thing to look at]) then near the goal line where run defense becomes more valuable due to selection bias you should see worse results from the offsides.

From the noise to signal ratio, I'd say that there...

2009-11-13T14:02:23.454-05:00

From the noise to signal ratio, I'd say that there is no statistically distinct relationship here.

If I accepted the proposition, however, I would consider it related to one of your prior posts on how teams run too much. A team is probably more likely (not that they should be) to run on 1st and 5 than on 1st and 10.

It would be interesting to look at the same statistics

It seems to make sense that teams wouldn't succeed...

2009-11-12T12:35:36.687-05:00

It seems to make sense that teams wouldn't succeed in hitting big plays as they get closer to the goal line, and that means they are just trying to convert after spending a down trying to go deep. This might lead to more minimum conversions (i.e. getting the first down in 5-7 yards) which leaves you with first and 10 in less favorable field position than a conversion on first and 10 from the

I suspect that this has something to do with play ...

2009-11-11T12:15:11.369-05:00

I suspect that this has something to do with play selection. Right in that band of midfield to about the opposing 20 is a spot on the field where teams like to take a deep shot at the end zone. This is espcially true when teams feel like they have a 'free play' the can spend on that high-probability, high-reward play.

Maybe when teams get that 5-yard penalty, and figure they

I assume that most 1st and 5s occur due to a defen...

2009-11-10T14:31:44.281-05:00

I assume that most 1st and 5s occur due to a defensive offside penalty, and this happens more often on pass plays due to hard counts and the like. Is there something that changes about runs and passes in this situation? Maybe teams change their run to pass ratio on 1st down or when they cross midfield, or passes become less advantageous (similar to the first comment)?

Two things: 1. For a good offensive team, 1st and...

2009-11-10T10:20:37.301-05:00

Two things:

1. For a good offensive team, 1st and 5 is not a big advantage over 1st and 10, because they're good enough to get the ten yards anyway. 1st and 5 is more helpful for teams who have trouble getting ten tards.

2. The 1st and 5 situation comes about when a team just failed to have a good play on 1st and 10, so they had to accept the penalty. So by looking at

You established yesterday that the conversion rate...

2009-11-10T09:57:02.809-05:00

You established yesterday that the conversion rate was the same between 2nd-and-2 and 1st-and-5, but the EP was greater for 1st-and-5. Your theory was that the offense had an extra down to convert a big play. The closer the offense gets to the opposing goal line, the less chance of a big play (as the defense doesn't have to cover as much of the field) and the less value in the big play (