Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: MJD Taking a Knee

Reading this post as well as the reports of MJD ap...

2009-11-18T15:04:22.780-05:00

Reading this post as well as the reports of MJD apologizing to fantasy players gives me an idea. You could make a deal with one of the fantasy sites to provide them with your in-game WP data, so they can offer it as a stat category in fantasy leagues.

One of the problems people have with fantasy scoring is that it doesn't reflect the actual values of plays: yards in garbage time

I was wondering the same thing as Pete. Also say ...

2009-11-18T12:12:14.031-05:00

I was wondering the same thing as Pete. Also say the Jags kick on 3rd down leaving enuff time for only a ko return or to kick again on a botched snap. What are the probabilities of a KO return for a TD vs a fg inside the 5?

nm you did it already! my new favorite blog.

2009-11-18T00:56:21.425-05:00

nm you did it already! my new favorite blog.

you should do an analysis on Pats chance of winnin...

2009-11-18T00:55:53.852-05:00

you should do an analysis on Pats chance of winning if they let addai score from the 14 yard line! that was the mistake. Belicheck shouldve taken a page from Del Rio and let Indy score.

I don't really dispute MJD taking a knee with 2 mi...

2009-11-17T21:08:14.548-05:00

I don't really dispute MJD taking a knee with 2 minutes left and a first down at the 1. I would like to know your analysis on the two subsequent kneeldowns to run out the clock and bring up the field goal, however. I would surmise that punching the ball in on 3rd down with <30 seconds left on the clock might be a bit safer of a play (you've greatly reduced that original 25% chance

I just saw Tom Jackson's "analysis" of this during...

2009-11-16T22:33:35.341-05:00

I just saw Tom Jackson's "analysis" of this during halftime of MNF. His point: Score when you can. You never know...something could go wrong. You could bobble a snap and you could lose.

Why oh why does every piece of mainstream analysis seem to start with the implicit assumption that the probability of success with the alternative is 100%?

Nobody would

I was really impressed too with MJD's decision. G...

2009-11-16T21:35:25.083-05:00

I was really impressed too with MJD's decision. Great analysis. I think it was intuitively huge, but its nice to see it broken down and compared the interception in the 3rd Quarter.

except for that packers/broncos super bowl of cour...

2009-11-16T17:33:25.950-05:00

except for that packers/broncos super bowl of course, right EightZero....

I agree Mark. I'm surprised we still haven't seen ...

2009-11-16T15:24:32.143-05:00

I agree Mark. I'm surprised we still haven't seen a situation in where the defense let's the opposing team score in order to get the ball back with time to score on their own.

Jeff (Clarke) - good point. Do you have any data o...

2009-11-16T14:45:04.345-05:00

Jeff (Clarke) - good point. Do you have any data on how many botched PAT's there are each year?

The reason this MJD play makes sense is the same reason New England should have let Addai score on his 13-yard run (to the 1) with 1:20 left. Letting him score would have given them the ball with 1:20 left only needing a FG to win.

Good analysis. It was so obviously the right move...

2009-11-16T11:54:21.640-05:00

Good analysis. It was so obviously the right move that several plays earlier, on Lewis' catch at around the 15, I screamed out "don't tackle him!" There were a little over 2 minutes to go, and Jacksonville was trailing by 1. As soon as Lewis made that 33-yard catch, ensuring a first down, the game was pretty much over. I wish Kerry Rhodes had noticed that.

Brian, can

I live in Jacksonville and, predictably, there are...

2009-11-16T09:11:28.001-05:00

I live in Jacksonville and, predictably, there are yahoos around here who are claiming that MJD's kneel-down was the the wrong play. Vic Ketchman, the Jags' in-house reporter, blogged during the game that it was a bad call. It amazes me how many people cling to the same old crap they've been hearing on TV for the last 40 years.

Just scrolled down to see the Belichick article. T...

2009-11-16T06:41:48.772-05:00

Just scrolled down to see the Belichick article. Thanks for that. I guess the availability of team-specific stats was a bit too much to ask for :)

Could you please post similar analysis on the Patr...

2009-11-16T06:33:18.080-05:00

Could you please post similar analysis on the Patriots fourth and 2 play? I'm not sure if you have the data to find the probability of the Indianapolis 2 minute offense versus the New England 2 minute defense from IND 35, versus

the probability they make it (*) 30-second Indy offense from IND 30, assuming they run a further 90 seconds off the clock and advance 5 yards,
+

I just posted this comment on the Belichick thread...

2009-11-16T06:26:42.771-05:00

I just posted this comment on the Belichick thread. Its even more relevant here. The 45% number for 2 point conversions is the most misleading stat in the NFL. I'm not even sure coaches know how bad it is. Had the Jaguars gone for two, they would have had a significantly higher than 45% chance of making it.

Here are the facts:

In today's Cincinnati game, the

I made this exact point to some people trashing th...

2009-11-16T00:46:52.984-05:00

I made this exact point to some people trashing the decision and was dumped all over :)

Nice to see some right thinking people out there.