Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: Offenses Run Too Often On 1st Down

"Maybe coaches shouldn't be so cavalier about 'tes...

2010-01-21T19:27:00.425-05:00

"Maybe coaches shouldn't be so cavalier about 'test plays.'"

I don't understand this comment. You have no idea how much value they result in, since you don't know what plays were "test" and what plays were changed due to that "test."

It's relatively easy to test your assertion that teams should run less: group teams by

Maybe coaches shouldn't be so cavalier about 'test...

2010-01-20T17:51:31.981-05:00

Maybe coaches shouldn't be so cavalier about 'test plays.'

Option plays, of any kind, will nicely collapse into a sub-game at the parent node of the general play type (run or pass).

"I don't need to call a run first to get you "set ...

2010-01-19T18:05:58.195-05:00

"I don't need to call a run first to get you "set up" for a pass on the next play."

I don't see how you can claim this with absolute certainty when coaches have *flat out stated* they call plays in order to see how a defense reacts. Calling a 'test play' to see how a defense reacts is the same thing as 'setting up' a defense, just using

Pat-You still seem hung up on sequence. "Follow-up...

2010-01-16T11:10:30.966-05:00

Pat-You still seem hung up on sequence. "Follow-up" plays and preceeding passes are irrelevant. I don't need to call a run first to get you "set up" for a pass on the next play. I just need to have you aware that I'll call a run with some probability on the current play.

Chris Brown (of smartfootball.com) once wrote that play calling in football is not much

"Teams are running more often than necessary to se...

2010-01-12T17:41:59.414-05:00

"Teams are running more often than necessary to set up those longer passes."

Without knowing
1) which specific runs are intended to be set-up plays
2) which specific passes are follow-up plays
3) how the results of the follow-up plays would change based on the number of set-up plays

I don't see how you can possibly justify that statement.
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If we agree that in 'normal' situations that net p...

2009-12-05T06:17:34.362-05:00

If we agree that in 'normal' situations that net point advantage is all that matters, and that every point is equally valuable, then that's exactly what I'm saying. Teams are running more often than necessary to set up those longer passes. If what matters is overall, long-run net point maximization, then teams should generally run less often.

There is nothing

Brian- I agree that each time a team runs on 1st d...

2009-12-05T05:49:48.438-05:00

Brian- I agree that each time a team runs on 1st down, they are sacrificing optimum performance...on that play. But they are setting up those long TD passes to a degree we cannot measure. Can two 1-yard runs cause a 90-yard TD pass? Would that 90-yard pass have happened anyways without the run plays? I don't think these questions can be answered by the game theory model. This is why I believe

Brett- Long TD passes count, don't they? Otherwise...

2009-12-03T04:36:44.252-05:00

Brett- Long TD passes count, don't they? Otherwise, we completely agree. My point is that teams are running too often to constrain defenses to the run. And each time they do, they're actually sacrificing optimum performance. The interdependency of playcalling is exactly what the game theory model is for.

We sure can put those subtleties into numbers. It's just a

Brian-- This is another good article and I usuall...

2009-12-03T00:50:27.909-05:00

Brian--

This is another good article and I usually agree with you, but I think you are greatly underestimating the importance of having a balanced offense. By isolating individual plays to compare their EP values, you are overlooking the interdependency of all plays, which is pretty much the essence of play-calling. I'm guessing the average EP of passing plays is heavily weighted

May I make a suggestion? Before I begin, let me s...

2009-11-30T21:38:23.026-05:00

May I make a suggestion? Before I begin, let me say that your conclusion is in line with my feeling on the subject, but I think that analyzing the value of certainty would be helpful. If your data set allows it, I believe that I can suggest a potentially interesting avenue of investigation.

For each 'bucket' of field position, for both runs and passes, evaluate the following:

Brain: As you may no I came to your cuntry throug...

2009-11-30T11:14:30.308-05:00

Brain:

As you may no I came to your cuntry through cadana. Does your 1st down theereys work fo the Ligue of the Cadana Football teems? - yes.

If so do you like the Rough Riders or the Roughriders.

PS I support your war of terror!

So a low variation decision that leads to the same...

2009-11-28T17:20:39.510-05:00

So a low variation decision that leads to the same expected win percent is equal to the high variation decision in a small sample?

Brian is completely right about the absurdity of a...

2009-11-27T16:01:54.426-05:00

Brian is completely right about the absurdity of applying portfolio analysis to football WP decisions. The bend in the utility curve is the only reason why you need to bother with things like "risk management", etc. This is a really important topic, because it appears to come up a lot. It seems like people are saying that a stable 75% WP is worth more than a 50% shot at 50% WP, 50%

Yeah, I never saw the value of the portfolio analy...

2009-11-27T12:57:19.077-05:00

Yeah, I never saw the value of the portfolio analysis. I value low variance in financial returns because I may really need the money at a particular time. In football, everyone always needs their points at exactly the same time -- at the end of 60 minutes. And the EP and WP metrics incorporate that reality.

The 69% to 65% conversion spread is VERY strong evidence. If passing

One other note about the run-and-shoot offense. As...

2009-11-27T11:19:53.060-05:00

One other note about the run-and-shoot offense. As I understand it, it wasn't about passing a lot on 1st down. It was a specific kind of read-react doctrine for QBs and receivers. It failed because pro defenses quickly learned how to counter it effectively, not to mention that the teams that employed it weren't all that good.

I'll post a bunch of graphs on this in a few

I'm no longer a big believer in the portfolio metr...

2009-11-27T10:55:33.681-05:00

I'm no longer a big believer in the portfolio metrics for football. I think they can help measure which teams are aggressive or conservative, but they cannot be prescriptive.

Financial portfolios are very different from a football game. You don't get to carry forward gains from one game to the next. In other words, you can't take a 20 point lead with you into the next game,

Concern about 3-and-out only makes sense, of cours...

2009-11-27T10:20:30.178-05:00

Concern about 3-and-out only makes sense, of course, if the 1st down conversion% is lower when a team runs on 1st down. Perhaps Brian can tell us if that's true.

I think Jim presents a strong case for skepticism about a large inefficiency, despite what the EPA data seems to show. Another angle on this is to see how much variance exists in terms of teams' 1st down pass%. I

Guy said... Could coaches have a rational reason...

2009-11-27T01:28:17.950-05:00

Guy said...

Could coaches have a rational reason to want to minimize the risk of running 3 plays and punting, especially early in a possession, because of the impact on the defensive squad ?... Just thinking aloud here....

Being that Buddy Ryan punched out Kevin Glibride in mid game while the latter was calling the run-and-shoot for just that reason -- Buddy's

Jim - There are a number of possible explanations ...

2009-11-27T00:02:33.354-05:00

Jim - There are a number of possible explanations off the top of my head.

Coaching is too slow to adapt to the new reality of passing supremacy ... The Ellsberg Paradox ...Coaches fall prey to the run-win causation fallacy

Well, the coaches and owners who brought the run-and-shoot to the league, and proselytized it (as they did -- they certainly weren't adverse

I think reason #1 is the most plausible theory (of...

2009-11-26T15:00:42.157-05:00

I think reason #1 is the most plausible theory (of course, could be more than one cause).

Could coaches have a rational reason to want to minimize the risk of running 3 plays and punting, especially early in a possession, because of the impact on the defensive squad (forcing them back on the field so quickly)? If running on 1st down increased the likelihood of achieving a first down

Jim-There are a number of possible explanations of...

2009-11-26T11:01:52.286-05:00

Jim-There are a number of possible explanations off the top of my head.

1. Coaching is too slow to adapt to the new reality of passing supremacy. Today's coaches learned their football in the 70s or 80s from other coaches who learned it in the 50s and 60s. Running a lot made more sense back then.

2. The Ellsberg Paradox, which I wrote about previously. There is a

I should point out that the other 2 studies I ment...

2009-11-26T10:31:40.673-05:00

I should point out that the other 2 studies I mentioned above used a regression to try to eliminate the bias we've discussed. They use dummy variables for team-years to account for varying team strength in running and passing.

Excellent work. And they say Andy Reid passes too...

2009-11-26T10:23:50.587-05:00

Excellent work.

And they say Andy Reid passes too much...ha

"Okay, I think I understand why my interpretation ...

2009-11-26T09:30:19.294-05:00

"Okay, I think I understand why my interpretation of EP was wrong... And I think I understand where the confusion came in for you as well."

Brad: I wasn't confused -- all plays should average to zero. When I talked about run and pass "EP" I meant the EP added, which is what Brian is discussing here. It's an important distinction, though, and maybe calling

How far-fetched is it to throw on every down in th...

2009-11-26T01:18:57.606-05:00

How far-fetched is it to throw on every down in the NFL?

Let me clarify: The average NFL completion is over ten yards and completion percentages hover around 60%. In its most crude form, that would imply just a 6.4% failure to convert a first down. Now, OBVIOUSLY some completions (or just above half) should result in plays under ten yards, OBVIOUSLY teams would play to counter the