tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post639086115163865983..comments2012-02-06T17:26:05.922-05:00Brian Burkenoreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-32264762621401982162009-04-30T11:12:00.000-04:002009-04-30T11:12:00.000-04:00Not that anyone will see this but it seems that the unlucky teams were bad in short yardage or the red zone while the lucky teams were proficient in both.parkernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-63463655297174485282009-01-16T12:51:00.000-05:002009-01-16T12:51:00.000-05:00<EM>"luck has little to do with anything if your a good team play hard and win."</EM><BR/><BR/>Unless the other team is also a good team that plays hard to win.<BR/><BR/>Then the being-good-and-playing-hard parts cancel each other out to a significant degree, and chance-contingency-luck become a big part of the picture.Jim Glasshttp://scrivener.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-72710434139479643722009-01-15T17:21:00.000-05:002009-01-15T17:21:00.000-05:00luck has little to do with anything if your a good team play hard and win.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-75252652665135507812009-01-14T10:51:00.000-05:002009-01-14T10:51:00.000-05:00Now that we have had some clarification in the playoffs (through two rounds) this graph has some VERY interesting things to say and I offer some reasonable explanations.<BR/><BR/>All the "lucky" teams that made the playoffs struggled and are out: Tenn, Minn, Indianapolis, NYG.<BR/><BR/>The one "unlucky" team that made the playoffs is doing well: Eagles. (exception: ATL)<BR/><BR/>The rest of the teams are playing fine, but someone has to lose every game. <BR/><BR/>An interesting concept though is which teams are "punching more than their weight" in the playoffs: The eagles. And which teams are doing less that a true heavyweight: the Titans and Giants. <BR/><BR/>Essentially this says that even though some teams have inflated or deflated records, they can't play above or below what their true record should be.Odysseushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12341647885923887384noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-91224628269863508592009-01-01T20:49:00.000-05:002009-01-01T20:49:00.000-05:00PV<BR/><BR/>http://bp3.blogger.com/_9vPGUtR_ENY/RlR5WxjSyaI/AAAAAAAAAJA/PJxE2QeuH5Y/s1600-h/indypythvsactual.gif<BR/><BR/>Chart showing Indy's yearly results, both Pyth and actual. When teams are on a bullish trend (improving) they typically outperform Pyth (interpreted to mean "good luck") and vice-versa when on a bearish trend.Doug Waltershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03064547652967055670noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-91735851856381736752009-01-01T18:31:00.000-05:002009-01-01T18:31:00.000-05:00PV-<BR/><BR/>http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/06/rating-gameday-head-coaches.html<BR/><BR/>Not exactly what you're looking for, but it's close. My theory was that with enough years of data, the luck component in a coach's total residual would tend to even out, leaving his own game-day contribution as a result.Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-78701709989607293152009-01-01T16:51:00.000-05:002009-01-01T16:51:00.000-05:00Yeah, Favre should have stayed retired after last year. I sure hope he retires this time. He clearly can't play at the level he used to play at any more. Still, I'm sure as a Packers fan I'll be getting asked "aren't you mad they let Favre go?" for the next several years. Why would I be mad? Compare Rodgers' stats to Favre's, he's clearly the better quarterback. Favre was better in his prime but Rodgers is better right now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-37700147378128736042009-01-01T16:50:00.000-05:002009-01-01T16:50:00.000-05:00Have you examined luck across multiple seasons? For example, by Pythagorean expected wins, the '07 Vikings were 1.5 under, and the '08 Vikings were .8 over. I'm just wondering if 32 games significantly increases the odds of evening out the breaks.Pacifist Vikinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16630996018868040440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-76246629580768190292009-01-01T01:31:00.000-05:002009-01-01T01:31:00.000-05:00So true. Except I'd say that Favre <I>was</I> a great QB. He'll always be a great competitor in my book, but whether it was age or the shoulder injury, he was far from great.Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-5214355321552932042008-12-31T21:15:00.000-05:002008-12-31T21:15:00.000-05:00<EM>Tennessee, New England, and the New York Jets top the list of lucky dogs...</EM><BR/><BR/>Magnini's not feeling so lucky now.<BR/><BR/>After beating/getting lucky against Tennessee to reach 8-3 people were proclaiming the Jets "best in conference!" -- which they <EM>never never</EM> were, not even close after last year's 4-12 and with a very weak schedule. <BR/><BR/>The reason people keep giving for firing him is that after that 8-3 he failed to meet the expectations that had been set for a top team, it "collapsed" ... "How could the best team become the worst in the last five games???" <BR/><BR/>But if they'd lost say the Tenn and overtime NE games (in which they were underdogs) to be 6-5, then, and then won the SF and Sea games (in which they were favorites) to close at the same 9-7, there'd have been no collapse, the W-L would be +5 from the prior year, and Mangini would in all probability still be coaching out his contract if not with an extension.<BR/><BR/>So one could say random variability, an unfortunate bunchings of wins and losses, got him fired.<BR/><BR/>Of course, one could also say Favre got him fired in those last five games by performing with a 55 passing rating and 2-to-9 td-pick ratio.<BR/><BR/>Boy, were you right in calling him overrated! I told people but they didn't listen.<BR/><BR/>They still aren't. Favre is a great qb, far better than Popgun Pennington, we know that, so if Popgun so outplayed him it can only be because the coach grossly misused him, another reason Mangini must go ... but I digress.Jim Glasshttp://www.scrivener.netnoreply@blogger.com