tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post6646360144745749287..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): AFCCG NE-DEN ObservationsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-17399365104086935852014-01-20T19:01:12.557-05:002014-01-20T19:01:12.557-05:00I think what made the FG call correct was the one-...I think what made the FG call correct was the one-sided nature of the game. There is a lot of variance going for the TD. Normally, you have to live with variance for the sake of scoring points. You have to risk the negative extreme for a chance at the positive extreme. <br /><br />But when you're ahead like DEN was, the last thing you want is variance. You just want a boring, average game. You win in that situation. So you take the sure 3 points, because that's what pushes you towards the average outcome.<br /><br />(I think this has been on the site before: heavy favorites should play for the mean while underdogs should push for variance.)Mattnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-60338850607021896522014-01-20T12:35:33.220-05:002014-01-20T12:35:33.220-05:00Dragon - I'm with you on that. Regardless of t...Dragon - I'm with you on that. Regardless of the numbers - and as a reader of this site, I'm a big fan of the numbers - I thought Denver should have gone for it. I just kept thinking with all these field goals, you're letting NE hang around too much. We can all look back and say "that was the right call", but at the time I thought that decision would come back and bite them. When you have the chance to kill Brady and Belicheck, you take it.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03108711283276399018noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-59106273273420932402014-01-20T09:45:29.788-05:002014-01-20T09:45:29.788-05:00You can stick that narrative where the sun don'...You can stick that narrative where the sun don't shine.Peyton Manningnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-80374018820559083842014-01-19T21:54:57.280-05:002014-01-19T21:54:57.280-05:00I'm surprised the first down bot agreed with t...I'm surprised the first down bot agreed with the decision to kick from the two up by 17 to go up by 20. I still think that given the specifics of the teams given Denver's powerful offense and the strategic implications of being up by more than three touchdowns versus the upside of the field goal is remaining up by less than three touchdowns after the kick.Dragon Piehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16533147424543544534noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-79895390010097988912014-01-19T20:15:51.323-05:002014-01-19T20:15:51.323-05:00Good analysis, Brian. As a NE fan, I was disappoi...Good analysis, Brian. As a NE fan, I was disappointed in the outcome, but not in the overall play of the game. It was pretty much mistake free all game, and the risks that Belichick had to take generally didn't pan out. Overall, Denver was the better team on paper, and they played like the better team, on offense and on defense.<br /><br />Tough to watch, but the better team won.UUbuntuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16984002873871838473noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-37373352577695377242014-01-19T19:57:07.597-05:002014-01-19T19:57:07.597-05:00The Patriots tackling seemed abysmal. It seems fir...The Patriots tackling seemed abysmal. It seems first contact was always good but first contact never took the runner down.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14363771794984049177noreply@blogger.com