tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post670437283488266075..comments2009-05-15T10:18:07.456-04:00Brian Burkenoreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-23790937482454228402009-05-15T10:18:00.000-04:002009-05-15T10:18:00.000-04:00Bill-you're right. I took a shortcut here because fumbles occur at roughly equal rates for both run and pass plays. In reality it's a little more complex than I present it, though, because there is a difference in <I>where</I> fumbles tend to occur based on play type. I don't have a lot of confidence in my data on that right now. Good point.Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-76770470006653576122009-05-15T09:54:00.000-04:002009-05-15T09:54:00.000-04:00Fascinating stuff. I wonder if you've considered fumbles as part of the analysis. You detract -45 for a turnover in the passing gamein Adj. YPA, but where are turnovers in the running game accounted for here? Shouldn't they be? If the risk of an interception is factored in when looking at Adj. YPA, shouldn't the risk of a fumble in the running game be included in the analysis? If not, I think you're discounting the passing game premium too much. <br /><br />I realize that data on fumbles by running backs, as opposed to fumbles by anyone (wide receiver, tight end, quarterback) would be tough to come by, but I think not accounting for that in your rushing data, while including a penalty in the passing game, skews the data a bit in favor of the run. <br /><br />Again, great stuff!Bill Scofieldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13836313013666242312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-85860797175034472122009-05-15T08:24:00.000-04:002009-05-15T08:24:00.000-04:00It could, except I limited the data to the 1st 3 quarters and when the score was within 10 points.Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-54603130613808711802009-05-15T01:19:00.000-04:002009-05-15T01:19:00.000-04:00Could first down effectiveness be skewed by "garbage time" passes where a team is very behind and throwing on every down and the defense is playing prevent for half the field, giving up yards but not touchdowns?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-50397614103621895082009-05-13T20:41:00.000-04:002009-05-13T20:41:00.000-04:00Nice analysis. As a Lions fan, I think we bring any mean calculation down if it's a positive stat and up if it's a negative stat!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com