Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: Anatomy of a Collapse

Another reason is strength of schedule. The first ...

2008-12-23T00:18:00.000-05:00

Another reason is strength of schedule. The first 8 opponents average 6.3 wins after week 16, the next 7 average 8.1. So the Skins played a harder schedule in the second half of the year. They also had some key injuries in the second half...Portis is banged up but playing, Jansen and Griffen (starting off and def tackles) got hurt and missed some time.

I think there is a problem in that football is more of a physical game than a cerebral game.
If a team has bigger, faster, better players, the schemes and play calling become secondary.
Washington does not have the talent and depth of the Cowboys or the Giants. When there are two (maybe 3) teams in your division with more talent, it is becomes hard to be play at a .750
win rate.

Your rating system had the Skins with the higher prob of winning in 10 of 11 games and the skins won 6 of them. So maybe Zorn was "teaching to the test" and trying to manage the stats that "control" winning. But maybe the stats don't control winning, maybe the stats are the product of winning and losing.

I am still amazed that you can produce a win prob that is so accurate from the data you use.

Can you look at the numbers and tell me why the Ea...

2008-12-22T19:13:00.000-05:00

Can you look at the numbers and tell me why the Eagles are so Jekyll and Hyde this year? Common perception is not enough running plays. After scoring a measly 3 points when they called 48 passes and only 14 runs, its hard to argue, but there are so many other factors. Would love to get your insight!

On the local sports talk station this morning, I h...

2008-12-22T16:00:00.000-05:00

On the local sports talk station this morning, I heard John Riggins practically reading this article. "Campbell threw too few interceptionss." Used the same wording..."conservative side of risk reward balance...", etc.

The very next segment of the show, Riggins and the co-host were debating how much math can instruct a football team. The Redskins have a math guy on staff who doubles as the QB coach, and the conversation turned into 'what the heck is he doing on the team?'

Hi Brian,with you on Washington's offense.I make i...

2008-12-22T13:31:00.000-05:00

Hi Brian,with you on Washington's offense.I make it they ran for around half a yard per carry more than their opponents defenses allowed other teams to run for up to week 8 and slightly improved on that thru weeks 9 to 15.

Passing offense threw for 7 ypa against teams that are allowing 6.7 ypa to week 8,but declined from week 9 onwards when they only got 5 ypa against 5.9 ypa defenses.So the aerial game went from slightly above average to well below par.

The pass D I rated as above average to week 8 (allowed 5.6 ypa to teams that throw on average for 6.5 ypa).NYG,NO,Zona,Dallas,SL and Cleveland were all below their season ypa average in their early season Washington matchups. But that was totally reversed after the Detroit game.The Redskins allowed teams who combine to pass for 6 ypa to pass for 6.7 ypa.Dallas,NYG,Baltimore,and Cinci each bettered their seasonal passing average against Washington down the stretch.Only Pittsburgh and Seattle fell short.

Great post. I'm a Redskins' fan and without lookin...

2008-12-22T01:54:00.000-05:00

Great post. I'm a Redskins' fan and without looking at the numbers, I had a gut feeling that the their strategy has been too darn timid. Plus, on a subject near to your heart, they punt on so many fourth downs, even on short-yardage at mid-field.