Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: Onside Kicks

How often does the receiving team score after reco...

2012-02-07T02:16:20.719-05:00

How often does the receiving team score after recovering an onside kick?

How often does the receiving team score after reco...

2012-02-07T02:15:49.887-05:00

How often does the receiving team score after recovering an onside kick?

But, anon, it also likely means that the average E...

2011-10-26T20:56:44.610-04:00

But, anon, it also likely means that the average EP allowed from a kickoff (which is usually a touchback now) have gone down, too.

Time to look at the implications of the new league...

2011-08-29T22:31:33.747-04:00

Time to look at the implications of the new league rule on kickoffs--they've moved up, which means less risk in doing a surprise on-side kick, yes?

What most people don't know, but should is tha...

2010-08-22T11:25:04.264-04:00

What most people don't know, but should is that football is like a coin that has two sides. Everyone knows the universal truth of the first side of the coin that says that a team that scores more points than the opponent always wins. What people don't know is how a team lost a game without factoring the score. The other side of the coin would say that the team with the most real turnovers always losses the game. Statisticians do not count all events that turn the ball over without first scoring atleast 6 points. If they did they would see that the team with the higher number always losses. Try this with any game and you will see that it works:

Complete Turnovers: Interceptions, fumbles lost, missed fg's, punts, 4th down fails, kickoffs lost, safeties, and turnovers due to time (given if the team in possesion at the end of the half failed to score and has to kick to start the second half. Not counted if another turnover half or whole occurs at the same time. Also when the game ends and the team trailing fails to score before the time expiresn not counted against the team with the lead. also nullified if another turnover takes place.

Half Turnovers: Failed extra point or 2pat, Successful field goal, 2point conversion allowed.

Can't wait to see some statistical analysis of...

2010-03-23T19:46:54.199-04:00

Can't wait to see some statistical analysis of the new playoff OT rules. Seems to me that for the team that loses the toss the best percentage play would be to try an onside kick to start the OT.

Of COURSE, most people "thought he was full o...

2010-03-06T04:02:06.486-05:00

Of COURSE, most people "thought he was full of crap and really lucky." That derives from the fact that a large majority of football fans and even real football men are so tradition-bound that they refuse to acknowledge that they refuse to acknowledge the math, even when it whacks them upside the head.

I think Sean Payton reads your stuff, Brian. He t...

2010-02-09T17:45:58.614-05:00

I think Sean Payton reads your stuff, Brian. He told the media after the super bowl that he thought the chances of recovering that onside kick in the super bowl were around 60%-70%. From most of the stuff I read after that, everyone thought he was full of crap and just really lucky.

Vince-Forgot to say thanks for digging that up.

2009-10-24T16:53:12.414-04:00

Vince-Forgot to say thanks for digging that up.

That's weird. The difference in the break-even...

2009-10-24T16:47:56.495-04:00

That's weird. The difference in the break-even success rate is just due to different EP values. I'm not sure how they derived those, but they are very different from the others I've seen.

Based on Levitt/Kovash EP values:
Success=+1.7, Fail=-2.3, Deep Kick=-0.6
Break even = 43%

Based on Romer EP values:
Success=+1.5, Fail=-2.4, Deep Kick=-0.6
Break even = 46%

I'm looking at the PFP 2007 article, and I don...

2009-10-24T16:00:49.657-04:00

I'm looking at the PFP 2007 article, and I don't see a definition of what makes an onside kick a "surprise." Their numbers are: from 1996-2006, there were 78 surprise onside kicks, 55 of which were successfully recovered (71%), and 516 expected onside kicks, 85 of which were successfully recovered (16.5%). They say that the break-even point for a surprise onside kick is 62% (rather than 42%): successful recovery at your own 40 is worth .94 EP, failure to recover giving the other team the ball at your 40 is worth -2.13 EP, and kicking deep on average gives the other team the ball at their 27.4 which is worth -.24 EP.

I'm guessing based on the behavior of the rece...

2009-10-23T16:04:55.100-04:00

I'm guessing based on the behavior of the receiving team. If they have a deep guy and blockers, they were expecting a regular kickoff. If they are crowding the line, with maybe one guy deep, they were expecting an onsides.

But Pro Football Prospectus probably just used some guy's opinion.

Interesting. How was "surprise" defined?...

2009-10-22T21:54:12.108-04:00

Interesting. How was "surprise" defined?

According to Pro Football Prospectus 2007, "s...

2009-10-22T20:13:38.070-04:00

According to Pro Football Prospectus 2007, "surprise" onside kicks had a 71% success rate from 1996-2006.

As ever in the NFL one massive key to success is m...

2009-10-22T03:16:51.811-04:00

As ever in the NFL one massive key to success is misdirection, making the opponent think you're doing one thing when you're actually doing something else.

It's amazing to think that after all these years, it seems coaches are operating way off the equilibrium for onside kicks. As you showed in another post, they're pretty close to equilibrium in run:pass ratio on third downs. I wonder if coaches are starting to read these blogs, what with the number of 4th down attempts seeming up so far this year, and whether we'll soon see coaches taking even more risks as it's shown that it's worth it in some situations.

JKL-That was my thought too. I ran the numbers on ...

2009-10-21T23:04:15.022-04:00

JKL-That was my thought too. I ran the numbers on this a few months ago, and I have to dig it up to check. I'd theorize the receiving team is more alert to the onside possibility at the beginning of the game, and as they fatigue they are less alert.

Anon-It's too early to tell. The numbers in this article don't include 2009.

How have the new restrictions on onside kicks this...

2009-10-21T22:16:32.746-04:00

How have the new restrictions on onside kicks this season affected success rates?

I notice there is a dip in success rate right at 5...

2009-10-21T14:16:47.243-04:00

I notice there is a dip in success rate right at 50%-60% chance of winning. Is this random, or does this represent teams trying an onside kick at the start of the game, where the surprise onside kick may not be as surprising as say, with 4 minutes left in the first quarter?

Do you have the data separated out by kicks at the start of a game/half (when coaches can prep the players coming in on both sides), versus after a score when the kicking team isn't in a very low WP situation?

Do you have the stats on onside kicks in the 1st h...

2009-10-21T14:14:27.860-04:00

Do you have the stats on onside kicks in the 1st half when it is a surprise?

This is great work. Its a topic I've thought ...

2009-10-21T13:41:22.535-04:00

This is great work. Its a topic I've thought about a bit and have always wanted to study more deeply.

I'm sure readers of this blog have heard of Pulaski high school in Arkansas. The coach is famous for never punting. He is also famous for trying an onside kick everytime.

The math is somewhat dependent on the fact that high school kickers can't kick as far and opposing teams special teams don't practice covering onside kicks as often as NFL teams do. So the math is not directly comparable to the NFL. Yet its still an interesting story because I think he has the math right and his opponents don't.

I'm especially interested in the game theory and equilibrium issues that would be involved in running a "surprise" onside kick far more often....say around 20% of the time. The biggest difference between a surprise onside and an expected one is the receiving team's personnel. They replace the big blockers with small wide receivers. If a team ran "surprise" onside kicks more often, they could always change the call at the last minute. If hands guys are on the front line, kick away. If not, go through with it.

The other problem from an adjustment point of view is preparation time. Say there is one team that surprise onsides 20% of the time and all the others do it 1% of the time. Clearly, when you are getting ready for that one team, you should prepare for it more often. What does that mean in real life though? Special teams units don't get as much practice time as most of the players have other responsibilities. How much time can you dedicate to a trick play you are likely to see only so often? Also, from one team's perspective, getting another team to spend more time preparing to stop a gadget play has real advantages in the corollary that they spend less time preparing for everything else.