tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post7336387178930194199..comments2009-12-24T09:31:09.404-05:00Brian Burkenoreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-33742346819969070762009-12-24T09:31:09.404-05:002009-12-24T09:31:09.404-05:00Very high quality detail. Fly Navy !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-64021489462269547722009-06-24T17:30:33.818-04:002009-06-24T17:30:33.818-04:00A TD is worth 7 points about 97% of the time. Meaning over a 2+ yr period, a team typically will have only 1 single TD that wasn&#39;t worth 7 points, unless the team is going for the 2 point conversion. So I think this writer was pretty safe in saying that a TD is worth 7 points. <br />Secondly, the rules pertain because a team would benefit from building a dominant offense vs a dominant defense due to the fact that the league will always side with the offensive team. Whether it&#39;s pass interference, hitting the qb, offensive players stiff-arming the facemask of a defender. The league wants high scoring games, bottom line. So you can build a defensive team, but you&#39;re going to have two opponents...the other team and the referees.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-80188315018522279802009-04-15T22:01:00.000-04:002009-04-15T22:01:00.000-04:00i only read a little bit of this but i believe this is all stupid. If this was profeesional, wouldn't a touchdown be 6 points instead of 7?...hmmmm, and what do rules have to do with how a defense can win championships??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-67038030204140038772009-02-20T03:44:00.000-05:002009-02-20T03:44:00.000-05:00Thought you might all enjoy this read -- SuperBowl champs with offensive and defense rankings (scoring and total) through the last 19 years.<BR/><BR/>http://www.thumper300zx.com/megalist/defense.htmDavidhttp://thumper300zx.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-52077684616572125082008-12-14T17:32:00.000-05:002008-12-14T17:32:00.000-05:00Might these statistics also be reflective of the fact that the vast majority of the rules changes in football benefit the offense (especially offensive lineman's ability to use their hands in blocking -- which has had the net effect of semi-legalizing holding)?<BR/><BR/>Obviously both offense and defense are essential to be a championship team: an offense has to score consistently and the defense has to get some stops.<BR/><BR/>If two theoretically perfect offenses face off (they score on every posession) all you need is one stop - or even just to hold the opposition to a field goal - to win the game . . . and therefore your defense will have 'won' you a championship.<BR/><BR/>But you would still have to have that offense that scores every time.<BR/><BR/>Seems like a 'the chicken or the egg' proposition to me.<BR/><BR/>mlc0808Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-25151317405934418962008-12-07T23:04:00.000-05:002008-12-07T23:04:00.000-05:00This is a great point, that the importance of defense is conditional upon good offense. I'd love to see the distributions of playoff teams. But I wonder about the smoothed distributions. Is the increased variance in offense due to the two small peaks (maybe multi-modal?) and not really fatter tails?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-73645353215402605832008-07-14T18:09:00.000-04:002008-07-14T18:09:00.000-04:00Your data shows what an analysis based on simpler off/def rankings shows -- being good to very good on both sides of the ball matters, but since the 1970s, being very good on offense is more important. Check out Ch. 5 in my book, From the Ballfield to the Boardroom. The only exceptions to this in the last 30 years have been the great, great defenses such as Baltimore.<BR/><BR/>The point you make about defenses helping offenses score points works the other way, too. Good offenses keep the ball away from the other team and make the field longer for them.BGwww.wku.edu/~brian.goffnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-39899034663545143412008-01-09T09:34:00.000-05:002008-01-09T09:34:00.000-05:00Related research:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=349" REL="nofollow">Ponts scored vs points allowed</A><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://footballpredictionnetwork.blogspot.com/2007/07/does-defense-matter-more-in-postseason.html" REL="nofollow">Defense in the postseason</A><BR/><BR/>and<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://footballpredictionnetwork.blogspot.com/2007/07/consistency-of-offensive-and-defensive.html" REL="nofollow">Consistency of offense vs defense</A>Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-47758175699263396342008-01-04T22:31:00.000-05:002008-01-04T22:31:00.000-05:00I'd buy that. What kind of correlation coefficients are you referring to? Do you have an analysis on this? Too bad there aren't more playoff games for data!Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-33190229120904264552008-01-04T21:37:00.000-05:002008-01-04T21:37:00.000-05:00My mantra has been that very good offenses are more common than very good defenses, and very good offenses are more likely to take a team to the playoffs than very good defenses. So if you have a bunch of teams with very good offenses, the only thing that's going to set apart one team from the rest of the pack is a very good defense. That's why defense seems more important in the postseason, even using correlation coefficients.Derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17941314072950152029noreply@blogger.com