tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post7528421518090875484..comments2010-01-26T14:30:05.314-05:00Brian Burkenoreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-17469576084927003282010-01-26T14:30:05.314-05:002010-01-26T14:30:05.314-05:00I need your help.<br />I have two questions about the Superbowl that I could use your help in finding the answer.<br />1. What team (NO or Indy) had the Superior Net Penalty YDS?<br />2. What team had the best Net Punts (total)(NO or Indy) this year?<br />thanks for your help.<br />Phil pmendels@optonline.netAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-52076668964056389122009-11-04T16:12:08.702-05:002009-11-04T16:12:08.702-05:00Hi!<br /><br />Yesterday it was the first time I found your site. I started predicting soccer matches, but I realized NFL has a much better set of available data, so I extrapolate some of my findings on soccer on match prediction.<br /><br />According with the model which Im using is a Bayesian parametic.<br /><br />= ROUND(120*((AI2*AL2)/(&#39;DEFENSE-09&#39;!$AB$35/120))/(((AI2*AL2)/(&#39;DEFENSE-09&#39;!$AB$35/120))+(((1-AI2)*(1-AL2))/(1-(&#39;DEFENSE-09&#39;!$AB$35/120)))),0)<br /><br />AI2= AVERAGE POINTS SCORED BY LOCAL TEAM PER GAME<br />AL2= AVERAGE POINTS ALLOWED BY VISITOR TEAM PER GAME<br />&#39;DEFENSE-09&#39;!$AB$35 = AVERAGE POINTS ALLOWED ALL NFL TEAMS 2009<br /><br />Those points are divided by 120, ex. a 24 point game team it will be 24/120 = 0.2 in the formula.<br />120 are half minutes.<br /><br />This model yields a 73% accuracy on game result and 59% against spread.<br /><br />Of course, I&#39;m interested on improving model prediction and your site is so interesting. I&#39;ll keep reading everything.Thanks for sharing your knowledge.<br /><br /><br />Greetings from Mexico.Vartanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01871396199744157232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-21199464009863081562008-02-09T10:43:00.000-05:002008-02-09T10:43:00.000-05:00I can say this. For fourteen years I authored an NFL football publication that appeared in many of this nation's newspapers. In the feature I included picks in all NFL games for that week. With one possible exception, IU averaged about 58% percent. I was considered pretty good so you are right about that. If you did 63% consistently, you were above average for sure.<BR/><BR/>I can't speak for you, but going backward and look at the history of games and then trying to forumlate results from that exercise only works if there is absolutely no human input. I used computers for my work but there was always some input by me so analyzing past data (which we used in our initial programming) always left us open to coloring the results. <BR/><BR/>I like your approach. But we all know the football has points on both ends. And then there is the point spread. favorites in the NFL win about 68% of their games. But they only cover half. Underdogs win 32% of the games and cover in half. That makes it tough to either bet the favorite and give the points or always take the dog with the points. It just isn't that easy. <BR/><BR/>In the final analysis the one ingredient that has so much to do with winning and losing and points is the one you cannot pre-estimate and that is luck. I'd rather be lucky than good. Statistics are fun but the work best in hindsight.Joeyhttp://journals.aol.com/chonors686/JoeyPage1noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-80498109037710169682007-11-04T16:32:00.000-05:002007-11-04T16:32:00.000-05:00Oh i agree and wasnt being led astray that you were hitting 75% ats, but I thought I reads you say something like using the spread as a baseline, so I though maybe by chance it was accounted for. I do however find using models yours are solid when wagering on the highest probability siutations. You dont account fore a score, where as I use another model that produces a probability to wina to cover based on predicted score. I far exceed the 53% standard or whatever everyone points to. It gave me a 5-1 morning juat today. I will continue here as an interested fan. Best wishes.MarkOhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03895221008444458452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-74953344041647594372007-11-04T16:14:00.000-05:002007-11-04T16:14:00.000-05:00This is all straight-up, no spreads. No one could predict ATS at 75% accuracy! The best models barely get above 55%, and most of that is simply luck. They can't sustain those rates very long.Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-45364142731371250702007-11-04T15:47:00.000-05:002007-11-04T15:47:00.000-05:00So you are not accounting for the spread number???MarkOhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03895221008444458452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-57345636275198564422007-11-04T15:36:00.000-05:002007-11-04T15:36:00.000-05:00It's straight-up. If the model predicts a game at 51/49 and the 51 team wins, I count it as correct.Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-59250541171193534802007-11-04T15:00:00.000-05:002007-11-04T15:00:00.000-05:00Brian, wow I didnt expect to see you for a week. I do have a follow up question. How exactly are you tallying W/L? I mean, it it Team A was at 51% and won and covered the LV number therefore its a W?MarkOhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03895221008444458452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-75639219530581864052007-11-04T14:46:00.000-05:002007-11-04T14:46:00.000-05:00And thanks for the compliment.Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-49248328422013098182007-11-04T14:45:00.000-05:002007-11-04T14:45:00.000-05:00Mark-This year I started in week 4. There aren't always 14 games in a week. Weeks 6 and 8 only had 13 games. All total, I've predicted 68 games going into this week, week 9.Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-40682303139387246422007-11-04T14:26:00.000-05:002007-11-04T14:26:00.000-05:00Brian,<BR/><BR/>You indicate a record of 50-18. I ask becasue I assume you began tracking in Week 5, and furhter assuming 14 games perweek that would be a tally of 56 games, versus your 68 total. Just curious, and fascinated by your work here. From a fan.MarkOhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03895221008444458452noreply@blogger.com