Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: Comparitive Modeling: Hockey as a Poisson Process ...

I think Doug Drinen has shown that TDs are likely ...

2010-02-14T18:09:44.430-05:00

I think Doug Drinen has shown that TDs are likely Poisson distributed for an individual player. What about yards? Seems like that would be normal. And, if fantasy points are based on TDs (poisson) and yards (normal?), what's the distribution of fantasy points for an individual player averaging X fantasy points/game? Normal as well?

I think this is important in determining the variability of fantasy football scoring. Because TDs are usually worth more than yards and you only get full TDs (instead 47 yards for 4 or 4.7 pts, you get 6 for a TD or 0 if your player doesn't score). Thus, it seems, that a two players averaging the same amount of fantasy points/game, there will be more variability for the player who's scoring is more dependent on TDs than yards.

I agree that hockey goals follow a poisson process...

2009-12-01T11:49:18.884-05:00

I agree that hockey goals follow a poisson process... almost. But you should probably account for the last two minutes of the hockey game when a team is trailing by one or two goals, they will pull the goalie. At this point the poisson parameters change for both teams. Knowing this, the actual likelihood of a two goal margin of victory is higher than what 60 minute poisson modeling would suggest.

I got through cal 303, but only stats 101. You gu...

2009-04-27T10:54:00.000-04:00

I got through cal 303, but only stats 101. You guys make my head spin. Keep the equations coming--they help us theoretical guys understand the practical much better.

By the way--I keep wanting to figure out the area under the curve. Does that make me strange?

Nice work. I have a background in math in general...

2009-03-12T11:44:00.000-04:00

Nice work. I have a background in math in general, but not statistics in particular. Give me an equation (like you did) and an explanation in plain English (like you did, unlike what Wikipedia does), then I'm good.

I'm eagerly awaiting part two of this post. I'd love to incorporate some actual game projections on my website, and you've given me tools to get halfway there. :)