Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: Ascent of the Tight End

Watching the Cowboys-Bucs game yesterday you could...

2009-09-14T16:37:17.532-04:00

Watching the Cowboys-Bucs game yesterday you could see an excellent case study in Martellus Bennett. Seeing two TEs in the huddle (Witten and Bennett) the defensive coordinator didn't know what package to put in because many plays Bennett lined up outside like a wide receiver. Considering that both Witten and Bennett can act like receiversor blockers very effectively, the offense could even decide what play to run based upon whether the defense puts on more DBs or LBs.

Expounding on your idea, teams would much rather n...

2009-08-27T14:45:15.693-04:00

Expounding on your idea, teams would much rather not let the defense know what they are doing before a play. Lining up a TE the defense can't be certain whether he is going to block or run a route, causing match-up problems.

TomG said... "The simplest reason: Teams woul...

2009-08-24T14:59:31.982-04:00

TomG said... "The simplest reason: Teams would much rather have an extra receiver than an extra pass blocker"
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Personally, I'd rather have both. Luckily, the TE position is both an extra receiver AND a pass blocker--sometimes both in the same play!

I wonder if this accounts, in part, for the declin...

2009-08-23T11:49:28.696-04:00

I wonder if this accounts, in part, for the declining effectiveness of Mike Martz's offense. In an effort to maximize yards per pass attempt, he holds in TEs to block. The Niners' Vernon Davis has already been making strides this preseason under Jimmy Raye, who had Gonzales in KC.

The simplest reason: Teams would much rather have ...

2009-08-23T02:02:06.721-04:00

The simplest reason: Teams would much rather have an extra reciever than an extra pass blocker

The outliers like Gonzalez or Gates each only gain...

2009-08-19T21:09:36.603-04:00

The outliers like Gonzalez or Gates each only gain a couple hundred yards more than the guys in the "pack." The overall increase in TE yards since 2001 is almost 9,000 yards, far too much for any single player or even group of players to account for. It's an overall position-wide increase.

I just took a look at the Football Outsiders TE da...

2009-08-19T20:07:59.808-04:00

I just took a look at the Football Outsiders TE data for 2008 and 1994 (the earliest year available), which includes every TE who was thrown at least 10 passes. Correcting for the increase in teams, there was a 31% increase in yards (from 530 per team to 694 per team) and a 24% increase in passes thrown to TEs (from 79 per team to 99 per team). Yards per catch stayed the same at 10.9 ypc, but completion percentage increased from 61.1% to 64.4%. The yardage increase was not concentrated at the top (Ben Coates 1994 actually outgained Tony Gonzalez 2008). The number of TEs with at least 300 yards increased from 19 in 1994 to 29 in 2008, the number with at least 500 yards increased from 7 to 15, the number with at least 700 yards increased from 4 to 7, and the number with at least 900 yards stayed the same at 2.

Two points. I don't know why you say that the...

2009-08-19T19:21:23.090-04:00

Two points. I don't know why you say that the increase is is far too large to be explained by the outliers. Did you run the analysis without outliers and still see a large increase? The second point, and I admit I'm nitpicking here, is that it is in no way reasonable to suggest that this increase would be equivalent to a 40% increase in second baseman hits. There is some increase in 2B p(hit) that would be equivalent, but it is surely much less than 40%.

It seems to me that offensive philosophies these d...

2009-08-19T11:42:44.436-04:00

It seems to me that offensive philosophies these days, while they include more passing (an inherently risky proposition) have shifted more toward the QB not making mistakes ("managing the game") as opposed to shooting for the big play ("gunslinging"). Passing overall is up (as evidenced by the WRs and RBs staying about the same, while TEs get more yards), but I'd imagine the TE a few yards downfield is more of a "safe" target than a WR way down the field.

As to why those passes go to TEs and not RBs, I couldn't say.