Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: Just for Kicks

You could argue that the most important 6 yards in...

2008-11-20T10:17:00.000-05:00

You could argue that the most important 6 yards in football might be between the 39 yard line and the 33 yard line. Your probability of scoring increases 300% if you can just pick up those extra 6 yards when you reach the 39. (20% success from the 39 vs. 60% from the 33)

steve

Hmm, what you call useless I could have used very ...

2008-11-18T02:17:00.000-05:00

Hmm, what you call useless I could have used very much so about 8 months ago. A friend and I got into an arguement about whether Andy Lee of the 49ers deserved to go to the Pro Bowl. He claimed that because the 49ers were such an awful offense, Lee had more room to punt and thus made his Average look better. I said that this effect, which probably exists, probably didn't exist for field position in front of the 50 yard line, and so was mostly inconsequential.

And judging by the graph, from midfield on backwards is where it really starts to even out. But in either case, I could have used this graph to plot out and compare Lee's punt average to the "expected" average based on field position. And then did the same for Mat McBriar, who my friend claimed was more deserving because he was on the better offense.

Cool. The punt graph starts curling downwards a li...

2008-11-17T11:00:00.000-05:00

Cool. The punt graph starts curling downwards a little earlier than I would have expected. It's nice to see this stuff because I'll think through (or occasionally even discuss) this principle now and then - the closer you get to the opponent's goal line, the less you expect to gain from a punt - but it's nice to see the data to support it, and to put some numbers to it.

I thought this post was interesting as well. Not ...

2008-11-16T23:34:00.000-05:00

I thought this post was interesting as well. Not earth shattering but it does help to get a better feel of what teams should do/expect in certain situations. Here is a random question. Since they have changed the rule for the coin flip how many teams now elect to kick off first in order to take the ball in the second half? I typically think this is a better strategy, especially at home in a big game that the fans are into. Do you have stats on records for teams receiving the opening kick also? I would wonder if there is any difference.

The in-game model does not factor in HFA. It's pur...

2008-11-16T21:46:00.000-05:00

The in-game model does not factor in HFA. It's purely general. The advantage was from the fact that WAS gets possession on average at its own 27.

Does your in-game model factor in HFA? I didn't t...

2008-11-16T21:40:00.000-05:00

Does your in-game model factor in HFA? I didn't think so, but it had Was as 54% to win right after Dallas tied it at 7-7 in the 2nd Q. Wasn;t sure if the 4% edge was due to HFA, or the fact that they were about to receive the ball.

For me - the more data, the better. I love looking...

2008-11-16T15:05:00.000-05:00

For me - the more data, the better. I love looking at stuff like this even if it doesn't have necessarily a ton of practical value.