Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: The Learning Curve

yeah it seems to me that the sample size is the bi...

2008-12-11T16:13:08.722-05:00

yeah it seems to me that the sample size is the biggest draw back to the whole thing, I think there are only 20-30 QBs in the whole thing, so I would guess that it only takes a couple of guys to skew the data

I've got the 2007 PFP, which has a follow-up artic...

2008-12-11T14:43:25.473-05:00

I've got the 2007 PFP, which has a follow-up article in it. That's where I got my understanding of the methodology in the research. The 2006 PFP has the original article.

Bootstrapping is dividing up the data into subsets, usually randomly, and then testing the relationships again. It's a way of gaining confidence in statistical inferences.

For example, in this study, you might

what goes into 'bootstrapping subsets of the data'...

2008-12-11T14:11:34.606-05:00

what goes into 'bootstrapping subsets of the data'?

maybe the rest of your audience knows all this (I took a statistics class and econometrics class back in college), but I can't say I do (and for what its worth IMO you do a pretty good job of explaining alot of this stuff w/o being patronizing)

I think the article is in the Prospectus book that you have to buy (I don't know

The difference isn't in the stats but in the infer...

2008-12-10T16:37:33.515-05:00

The difference isn't in the stats but in the inference we can make about the stats. It's about the confidence we can have in the the conclusions we draw.

When you test a single variable and it turns out significant, there is a 1 in 20 chance there really isn't a connection between the independent and dependent variables. (Forgive me if you know all this and I sound patronizing.)

?????Isn't that the whole point of testing for sta...

2008-12-10T14:24:36.565-05:00

?????

Isn't that the whole point of testing for statisically significance?

why does it make any difference whether you do it twenty at a time or one at a time?

The PFR blog picks up the discussion of break-out ...

2008-12-09T13:21:40.887-05:00

The PFR blog picks up the discussion of break-out rookie QB seasons.

Phil-Yes, I'm familiar with the theory. I think it...

2008-12-09T13:13:59.820-05:00

Phil-Yes, I'm familiar with the theory. I think it was a guest article on FO from a while back.

Intuitively, it would make a lot of sense and I'd buy it. QBs with many college starts are less likely to be one-year-wonder flash-in-the-pan types like Cal's Kyle Boller.

However, the methodology from that article was severely flawed. It basically took a couple dozen QB variables

Kiran-I'm guessing Rodgers isn't too far below Fav...

2008-12-09T13:02:31.257-05:00

Kiran-I'm guessing Rodgers isn't too far below Favre so far this year, but his season can't compare to Favre's from last year.

I think the Dolphin's lucked out the most. My system showed them as the strongest team in the AFC E for a while now. Although the Jets' have a better passing game this year, the bulk of their improvement has come primarily through the running game and defense.

Brian,Your excellent post prompted me to look anot...

2008-12-09T00:33:21.657-05:00

Brian,

Your excellent post prompted me to look another 3 quarterbacks, and compare their seasons to each other. Remember the Brett Favre soap opera in the offseason?

The result - Green Bay goes with untested Aaron Rodgers, the Jets trade a conditional draft pick (currently a third round, but maybe a second round, if the Jets make the playoffs) and give up on Chad Pennington

are you familar with the football outsiders articl...

2008-12-08T13:57:48.025-05:00

are you familar with the football outsiders article a couple of years ago stating that the best two predictors of NFL success in college QBs are games started and completion percentage?

With that in mind I find myself wondering what the current slate of Big XII qbs are going to look like at the next level, especially when you consider not only have Daniels and Harrell logs 3 years of

Brian,Very good analysis as usual. I don't know h...

2008-12-07T18:46:23.973-05:00

Brian,

Very good analysis as usual. I don't know how to attach tables and/or graphs to comments, so I have posted my comments to your post on my own blog - newqbrating.blogspot.com. I think you (and your readers) will find those comments interesting (if I should say so myself). Keep up the great work, and I hope to make future contributions to your thoughts.

Cheers,
Kiran